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2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: From Threat to Action

http://www.pdc2011.org/

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: From Threat to Action
9-12 May 2011
Bucharest, Romania

The International Academy of Astronautics will hold its 
second conference on protecting our planet from impacts 
by asteroids and comets from 9 - 12 May 2011 in Bucharest, 
Romania. The 1st IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting 
Earth from Asteroids, co-sponsored by the European Space Agency 
and The Aerospace Corporation, is the follow-on to three 
previous planetary defense conferences held in 2004 in Los 
Angeles and 2007 in Washington, D.C., and in 2009 in Granada, 
Spain.  For the upcoming conference in 2011, the call for papers 
is now open - see the menu item on the left for further details.

Call for Papers 2011 Planetary Defense Conference

From: http://rescommunis.wordpress.com/2010/08/05/2011-iaa-planetary-defense-conference-call-for-papers/
The European Space Agency has issued a call for papers for the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference on 09-12 May 2011 in Bucharest, Romania. The call covers numerous topics including Legal and Policy issues:

Call for papers
Papers are solicited for the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting Earth from Asteroids sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA), the Romanian Space Agency (ROSA), the European Space Agency (ESA), and The Aerospace Corporation (information on sponsorships is available at http://www.pdc2011.org/).
The theme for the conference is “From Threat to Action.” Papers are solicited in the following areas:
Potentially hazardous Objects – Recent Progress
• Discovery statistics and projections (ground-based & space-based)
• Observational refinements including non-gravitational effects and keyholes
• Lessons learned from recent discoveries including Earth impacting 2008 TC3
Discovery and Tracking Resources and Plans
• Program plans (e.g., NASA’s NEO program, ESA’s SSA program)
• Survey completion estimates; ground-based and space-based surveys
• The status of next generation surveys (e.g., PanSTARRS and LSST)
• The discovery and tracking of 50-meter class PHOs
• Utilizing archival and historical data

Impacts, Consequences and Education
• Historical information
• Modeling ocean and land impacts
• Consequences, impact frequency vs. size of impactor
• Planning for a short or no warning time event
• Public/media education and notification

Mission Planning & Technologies
• Viable deflection concepts and technologies; technology readiness and constraints
• Launch windows and mission designs for chemical, nuclear thermal, and ion drive missions
• Minimum-time trajectories for NEO missions
• Current capabilities for NEO deflection missions
• Matching mitigation options with available technologies and action timeline
Campaign Planning
• Human and robotic campaigns that inform all three NEO issues: science, exploration and planetary defense
• Decision tree, timelines and decision-to-act criteria (e.g., Impact probability thresholds)
• Threat evolution with time – refining the threat
• What do we do if a threat is detected tomorrow?

Legal, Policy, Political Framework for Planetary Defense
• Current international agreements and coordination activities
• Organizing, coordinating, and managing an international effort
• Impact of public opinion on decision to act and choice of mitigation method
• Planning for and consequences of a false alarm

Moving Forward on Planetary Defense
• Funding levels and priority actions to build and maintain readiness
• Current national and international funded activities that support planetary defense
Participants will develop a set of actionable recommendations that will help to improve our ability to successfully defend Earth from possible impacts and prepare for unexpected NEO-related disasters. Throughout the conference asteroid Apophis will be considered as a reference scenario to focus the discussions (current information on Apophis is posted at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/).
The conference will follow the model of the 1st IAA Planetary Defense Conference held in Granada, Spain in 2009–see http://www.congrex.nl/09c04/ for details on the 2009 conference.

ABSTRACT SUBMITTAL
Technical paper abstracts (250 to 500 words in length) in the areas described above or related to planetary defense will be accepted electronically through the official ESA conference website (http://www.pdc2011.org/) as of September 1, 2010. Please be sure to designate the topic area your paper addresses (see topics listed above).
The deadline for receipt of abstracts is January 14, 2011. Letters of official acceptance and instructions for paper submission will be mailed on or before 15 February 2011.
Accepted papers (including poster papers) will be published in the official conference Proceedings. Selected peer-reviewed papers will be published in Acta Astronautica. Authors of all poster papers will be invited to present two-minute overview presentations during the regular session. The format for papers will be that provided on the conference web site, http://www.pdc2011.org/.
STUDENT COMPETITION
Undergraduate students and graduate researchers are invited to submit abstracts in two major categories:
• MAKING THE WORLD AWARE. Participants are requested to develop and study creative ideas to help deepen the understanding of the public, decision makers and academia on the nature of threats posed by Near Earth Objects.
• FROM THREAT TO ACTION: Papers may also be submitted on any of the diverse areas covered by the conference, including celestial mechanics, space engineering, astrodynamics, political sciences, social sciences, etc., as they relate to planetary defense.
The best student paper in each category will be awarded a prize.
Note: The aim of the student competition is to help promote academic work and informed political debate by enhancing research and general understanding essential for sound decision making on NEO impact threats in years to come.
Undergrate students and graduate researchers submitting the abstract should tick the box “I will participate in the Student Competition”.

Giant asteroid to pass earth at close range 270-metre rock will swing by in 2029 — and it could be back after that

from: http://www.thestar.com/news/sciencetech/article/744268--giant-asteroid-to-pass-earth-at-close-range
The head of Russia's space agency called on Wednesday for a massive planetary effort to deflect a massive asteroid as it skips by the Earth in 2029.

"People's lives are at stake," Anatoly Perminov told Voice of Russia radio. "We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow us to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people."

Perminov said that Russia will consider building a spacecraft designed to nudge the Apophis asteroid away from the Earth, and invited NASA, the European Space Agency and the Chinese space agency to join him.

The Apophis asteroid, the size of just under three football fields, was first spotted heading towards Earth five years ago. At that time, it was suggested that there was a 2.7 per cent chance it would strike our planet in 2029. That alarming initial estimate has been seriously downgraded since, but continues to hold the attention of expert observers.

Apophis will first pass us at close range in just under twenty years. It may graze the Earth, missing us by only 30,000 km, less than the distance between the earth and the moon. But, at this point, astronomers have ruled out the possibility that it will hit us.

However, there is a very small chance that it will pass through a 600 metre-wide "gravitational keyhole" as it swings by. That would alter the course of the rock and cause it to slingshot back and hit the Earth in 2036. New NASA calculations released in October put the chances of impact during the second pass at 1-in-250,000.

That doesn't sound too terribly alarming, but as Dr. William Ailor, of California's Aerospace Corporation said Wednesday, "That's a pretty high probability if you're betting the planet."

In April, Ailor chaired the bi-annual Planetary Defense Conference that brings together the world's leading asteroid experts.

"There are still issues around how great does the risk have to be before you start planning a mission like this. But ultimately, everyone agrees that we will have to do this sooner or later," Ailor said.

Prof. Donald K. Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office, says the time to make a decision on Apophis is in late 2012 and early 2013, when it makes another close approach, within about nine million miles of Earth.

"The additional optical and radar data taken then will almost certainly remove any possibility of an Earth collision in April 2036. To my mind it would make sense to wait until 2013, refine the orbit and in the very unlikely event that the impact probability increases, then begin planning possible deflection options.

"While Apophis is almost certainly not a problem, I am encouraged that the Russian science community is willing to study the various deflection options that would be available in the event of a future Earth threatening encounter by an asteroid. We haven't found one yet but it does make sense to study deflection options in advance."

A variety of deflection methods have been suggested in past: gravitational tractors, landing a manned mission on Apophis, knocking it off target by ramming it or striking it with nuclear weapons. There is no broad consensus on what might work best.

"There's also the question of how you design the 'campaign' to attack the asteroid. You'd probably have to launch multiple vehicles, in case some failed," Ailor said.

Five years ago, Ailor said, the Aerospace Corp. ballparked the cost of such a mission at $80 billion (U.S.). NASA's current annual budget is a little over $17 billion. Perminov, sounding less than expert on the whole subject, got the year of impact wrong (2032), couldn't cite the latest estimates accurately and seriously underestimated the potential cost. But he's right about the risk.

Ailor points out that the asteroid which exploded over Tunguska, Russia in 1908 was only 30 metres across. It devastated more than 2,000 square kilometres of forest. Apophis is 270 metres in diameter.

What if it hit the Earth directly?

"That'd be a very bad day," Ailor said. "Probably not the end of all life as we know it. But a bad day."