26 February 2013

Its Time for a Real Policy on Asteroids!

"If you think the events of the Post-Valentine surprise of the Russian Meteor and 2012 DA14 near miss are one of a kind, think again. ”We know there are 500,000 to 1 million asteroids the size of DA14 or larger. So far we have found fewer than 1% of that “cosmic hailstorm” through which we sail in our yearly orbit around the Sun,” ...

But look: Meteors raining fire down on Russia injuring hundreds of people, and the closest pass of an asteroid ever forecast and recorded (2012 DA14) as a post-Valentine’s day surprise need to be a wake up call. The longer we go without a pro-active space policy on asteroids, the more we sacrifice international leadership, hold back our industry, and reduce our chances of being able to effectively deal with the threat."

Find the full article here:http://thespacereview.com/article/2248/1
http://www.kurzweilai.net/its-time-for-a-real-policy-on-asteroids
http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/its-time-for-a-real-policy-on-asteroids/
http://www.spacesolarpower.org/its-time-for-a-real-policy-on-asteroids/

16 February 2013

The Death Star is Dead; Long Live DE-("Life") Star!

[HUMOR]

Citizens for the Death Star, Take Heart: Recycle your plans!

Just last month, the Obama administration rejected calls from 34,435 of its citizens calling for the administration to "Secure resources and funding, and begin construction of a Death Star by 2016," stating that, by "focusing our defense resources into a space-superiority platform and weapon system such as a Death Star, the government can spur job creation in the fields of construction, engineering, space exploration, and more, and strengthen our national defense."

The administration rejected the proposal, partially on expense, but also based on a stated policy that the administration "does not support blowing up planets."

However, it is unclear if the administration pro-planetary rights position extends to asteroids and meteors that threaten Earth.

In light of the recent asteroid close pass, meteor strike over Russia, and Russian calls for a planetary defense system, perhaps these citizens should seek a compromise position.

Certainly, these  34,435 citizens could achieve most of their stated objectives of spurring job construction engineering and space exploration by pursuing Space-Based Solar Power (recommended by the Pentagon itself), building multi-kilometer across giant space stations which send power to Earth via Lasers or Microwaves.  Sure, the capability of lighting a planet through infinite green energy may not be as spectactular or perceived as "cool" as the capability to blow one up, but at least it is still perceived by Chinese space program pioneers such as Prof Wang Xiji as the key to global domination ("Whoever takes the lead in the development and utilization of clean and renewable energy and the space and aviation industry will be the world leader.")

Sure, you'd have to live with the fact that you are doing good instead of evil, but  at least you get the giant space station beaming gigawatts of energy.

Sure, you might not make as many enemies in the process, but at least you could join forces with most American citizens, who, when surveyed by and large favor constructing Space Solar Power Satellites to every other potential space mission (with asteroid defense being #2), and who have separately petitioned the administration to make SBSP part of our space program.

You'd have to scope your ambitions...instead of thousands of years to construct, you'd have to cope with the reality articulated by the International Academy of Astronautics IAA 2011 report that "As of 2010, the fundamental research to achieve technical feasibility for the SPS [solar-power satellites] was already accomplished. Whether it requires 5–10 years or 20–30 years to mature the technologies for economically viable SPS now depends more on the development of appropriate platform systems concepts and the availability of adequate budgets."

Sure, you'd have to bite a really big bullet, because an SBSP program is unfortunately NOT going to cost (errr..inject stimulus dollars) of $850,000 Trillion (Obama administration estimate)...since an individual multi-gigawatt Space Solar Power Satellite only cost in the tens of billions, but at least they would pay-back economically.  And of course it would only take about $10 billion and 10 years to get the first demonstration in operation, and the IAA estimated job creation in the multiple millions.

But if giant multi-gigawatt orbiting power monsters delivering infinite green energy to planet Earth is not a close enough compromise, consider this most recent proposal by the Scientists at UC Santa Barbara might just fit th

e bill! Philip M. Lubin, and Gary B. Hughes are proposing a spaced based laser system 10 kilometers in diameter (about 100 times the size of the ISS) that could deliver 1.4 megatons of energy per day to its target, taking care of a pesky little asteroid like

2012 DA14 in about an hour, or destroy asteroids 10 times larger in about a year, with evaporation starting at a distance as far away as the Sun. Sure, saving a planet isn't destroying one...but at least you get the giant space station and jobs!






From: http://www.ia.ucsb.edu/pa/display.aspx?pkey=2943

NEWS RELEASE


California Scientists Propose System to Vaporize Asteroids That Threaten Earth




February 14, 2013

Click for downloadable image Full description below. †



Click for downloadable image Full description below. ††



Click for downloadable image Full description below. †††

(Santa Barbara, Calif.) –– As an asteroid roughly half as large as a football field –– and with energy equal to a large hydrogen bomb –– readies for a fly-by of Earth on Friday, two California scientists are unveiling their proposal for a system that could eliminate a threat of this size in an hour. The same system could destroy asteroids 10 times larger than the one known as 2012 DA14 in about a year, with evaporation starting at a distance as far away as the Sun.


UC Santa Barbara physicist and professor Philip M. Lubin, and Gary B. Hughes, a researcher and professor from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, conceived DE-STAR, or Directed Energy Solar Targeting of Asteroids an exploRation, as a realistic means of mitigating potential threats posed to the Earth by asteroids and comets.


"We have to come to grips with discussing these issues in a logical and rational way," said Lubin, who began work on DE-STAR a year ago. "We need to be proactive rather than reactive in dealing with threats. Duck and cover is not an option. We can actually do something about it and it's credible to do something. So let's begin along this path. Let's start small and work our way up. There is no need to break the bank to start."


Described as a "directed energy orbital defense system," DE-STAR is designed to harness some of the power of the sun and convert it into a massive phased array of laser beams that can destroy, or evaporate, asteroids posing a potential threat to Earth. It is equally capable of changing an asteroid's orbit –– deflecting it away from Earth, or into the Sun –– and may also prove to be a valuable tool for assessing an asteroid's composition, enabling lucrative, rare-element mining. And it's entirely based on current essential technology.


"This system is not some far-out idea from Star Trek," Hughes said. "All the components of this system pretty much exist today. Maybe not quite at the scale that we'd need –– scaling up would be the challenge –– but the basic elements are all there and ready to go. We just need to put them into a larger system to be effective, and once the system is there, it can do so many things."


The same system has a number of other uses, including aiding in planetary exploration.


In developing the proposal, Lubin and Hughes calculated the requirements and possibilities for DE-STAR systems of several sizes, ranging from a desktop device to one measuring 10 kilometers, or six miles, in diameter. Larger systems were also considered. The larger the system, the greater its capabilities.


For instance, DE-STAR 2 –– at 100 meters in diameter, about the size of the International Space Station –– "could start nudging comets or asteroids out of their orbits," Hughes said. But DE-STAR 4 –– at 10 kilometers in diameter, about 100 times the size of the ISS –– could deliver 1.4 megatons of energy per day to its target, said Lubin, obliterating an asteroid 500 meters across in one year.


The speed of interplanetary travel –– far beyond what is possible with chemical propellant rockets used today –– could be increased with this sized system, according to Lubin. It could also power advanced ion drive systems for deep space travel, he said. Able to engage multiple targets and missions at once, DE-STAR 4 "could simultaneously evaporate an asteroid, determine the composition of another, and propel a spacecraft."


Larger still, DE-STAR 6 could enable interstellar travel by functioning as a massive, orbiting power source and propulsion system for spacecraft. It could propel a 10-ton spacecraft at near the speed of light, allowing interstellar exploration to become a reality without waiting for science fiction technology such as "warp drive" to come along, Lubin said.


"Our proposal assumes a combination of baseline technology –– where we are today –– and where we almost certainly will be in the future, without asking for any miracles," he explained. "We've really tried to temper this with a realistic view of what we can do, and we approached it from that point of view. It does require very careful attention to a number of details, and it does require a will to do so, but it does not require a miracle."


Recent and rapid developments in highly efficient conversion of electrical power to light allow such a scenario now, Lubin said, when just 20 years ago it would not have been realistic to consider.


"These are not just back-of-the-envelope numbers," Hughes concurred. "They are actually based on detailed analysis, through solid calculations, justifying what is possible. And it's all available under current theory and current technology.


"There are large asteroids and comets that cross the Earth's orbit, and some very dangerous ones going to hit the Earth eventually," he added. "Many have hit in the past and many will hit in the future. We should feel compelled to do something about the risk. Realistic solutions need to be considered, and this is definitely one of those."


Three UCSB undergraduate students are assisting Lubin and Hughes with the DE-STAR project: Johanna Bible and Jesse Bublitz, both from the College of Creative Studies, and chemistry major Joshua Arriola.


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[RETURN TO TOP]



† Top image: Concept drawing of the DE-STAR system engaging both an asteroid for evaporation or composition analysis, and simultaneously propelling an interplanetary spacecraft.

Courtesy Philip M. Lubin



†† Middle image: This plot shows time to evaporate an Apophis-like asteroid versus diameter of the asteroid, versus several laser power levels. The baseline DE-STAR 4 system has approximately 100 gigawatts of laser power.

Courtesy Philip M. Lubin



††† Bottom image: This plot shows DE-STAR laser power and spot diameter versus DE-STAR array size. The DE-STAR system is modular and can be built up in sections each of which is immediately operational.

Courtesy Philip M. Lubin



###

So...the Improbable DOES happen!


What an amazing and unprecedented post-Valentine's day surprise!

In the same day that the close approach of 2012 DA14, a 50 meter "city killer" class asteroid, discovered less than one year ago, came zipping by within 27,700 km of the Earth, well inside the band of communications satellites in Geosynchronous orbit, and less than 1/13th the distance to the Moon, there Siberia Russia experienced its second major meteor strike in barely 100 years, and the first-ever meteor strike in the modern era to result in human injuries. Is it wishful thinking that such events might elevate Asteroids in the public discourse and lead to some proactive policymaking?

From: http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/russian-city-hit-meteor-1200-people-hurt-18518828
1,200 People injured, 4,000 Buildings damaged, 1 million square feet of glass shattered
Meteor weighed more than Eiffel Tower

From: http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-wn-fg-chelyabinsk-meteor-lessons-20130216,0,4643856.story

"It is high time Russia should start heavily investing in building an advanced space danger monitoring and warning system and above that a system capable of destroying such super bombs falling on us from the skies."

The Chelyabinsk region has long been one of the most important military-industrial regions of Russia, where you "can’t drive a mile without passing a defense or a nuclear industry installation," the scientist said.

"We should be thankful to fate that this meteor in fact was a blessing in disguise and instead of destroying a significant part of Russia with quite dire consequences to the rest of the world, it sent us a clear warning signal by simply blowing up a bunch of windows and lightly injuring over 1,000 people," Lipunov said.

Bagrov spoke in favor of creating an early warning system of satellites monitoring space for signs of approaching danger instead of restoring a global land- and sea-based system. Lipunov argues that a space system would be more expensive and may take a decade to install -- and even then it would not be as reliable as an Earth-based system equipped with powerful telescopes.

Regional Gov. Mikhail Yurevich told reporters Saturday that the material damage to the region already exceeds $33 million. He said that 30% of about 100 square meters of broken windows had already been replaced.

The explosion damaged 3,000 residential houses, 34 hospitals and clinics and 360 schools and kindergartens, as well as several businesses. High school and university students received a day off Saturday. At least three hockey games were canceled because of damage to the local rink.
From: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/02/15/injuries-reported-after-meteorite-falls-in-russia-ural-mountains/
The meteor -- estimated to be about 10 tons and 49 feet wide -- entered the Earth's atmosphere at a hypersonic speed of at least 33,000 mph and shattered into pieces about 18-32 miles above the ground, the Russian Academy of Sciences said in a statement. But even small asteroids pack a tremendous punch, explained Andrew Cheng of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. 
"It doesn’t take a very large object. A 10-meter size object already packs the same energy as a nuclear bomb," Cheng, who led a 2000-2001 mission for NASA to orbit and land on an asteroid, told FoxNews.com. 

"There was panic. People had no idea what was happening," said Sergey Hametov, a resident of Chelyabinsk, a city of 1 million about 930 miles east of Moscow.

The meteor hit less than a day before Asteroid 2012 DA14 is to make the closest recorded pass of an asteroid to the Earth for a rock of its size -- about 17,150 miles. But the European Space Agency said its experts had determined there was no connection -- just cosmic coincidence.
The meteor released several kilotons of energy above the region, the Russian science academy said. According to NASA, it was about 15 meters or 49 feet wide before it hit the atmosphere, about one-third the size of the passing asteroid.
Lessons had just started at Chelyabinsk schools when the meteor exploded, and officials said 258 schoolchildren were among those injured. Amateur video footage showed a teacher speaking to her class as a powerful shockwave hit the room.

The site of Friday's spectacular show is about 3,000 miles west of Tunguska, which in 1908 was the site of the largest recorded explosion of a space object plunging to Earth. That blast, attributed to a comet or asteroid fragment, is generally estimated to have been about 10 megatons; it leveled some 80 million trees.
Scientists believe that a far larger meteorite strike on what today is Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula may have been responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs about 66 million years ago. According to that theory, the impact would have thrown up vast amounts of dust that blanketed the sky for decades and altered the climate on Earth.
The meteor could have produced much more serious problems. Chelyabinsk is an industrial town long held to be one of the world's most polluted areas, and the area around it hosts nuclear and chemical weapons disposal facilities.

Vladimir Chuprov of Greenpeace Russia said the Russian government has underestimated potential risks of the region. He noted that the meteor struck only 60 miles from the Mayak nuclear storage and disposal facility, which holds dozens of tons of weapons-grade plutonium.
A chemical weapons disposal facility at Shchuchye also contains some 6,000 tons of nerve agents, including sarin and VX, about 14 percent of the chemical weapons that Russia is committed to destroy.

Jim Green, NASA's director of planetary science, called the back-to-back celestial events an amazing display.
"This is indeed very rare and it is historic," he said on NASA TV. "These fireballs happen about once a day or so, but we just don't see them because many of them fall over the ocean or in remote areas."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/02/15/injuries-reported-after-meteorite-falls-in-russia-ural-mountains/#ixzz2L5QFgH9U






04 February 2013

Feb. 15th an asteroid (2012 DA14) about half the size of a football field will fly past Earth only 17,200 miles above our planet's surface

From: http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Record_Setting_Asteroid_Flyby_999.html


Record Setting Asteroid Flyby
by Dr. Tony Phillips for NASA Science News
Huntsville AL (SPX) Feb 01, 2013

Talk about a close shave. On Feb. 15th an asteroid about half the size of a football field will fly past Earth only 17,200 miles above our planet's surface. There's no danger of a collision, but the space rock, designated 2012 DA14, has NASA's attention.

"This is a record-setting close approach," says Don Yeomans of NASA's Near Earth Object Program at JPL. "Since regular sky surveys began in the 1990s, we've never seen an object this big get so close to Earth."

Earth's neighborhood is littered with asteroids of all shapes and sizes, ranging from fragments smaller than beach balls to mountainous rocks many kilometers wide. Many of these objects hail from the asteroid belt, while others may be corpses of long-dead, burnt out comets. NASA's Near-Earth Object Program helps find and keep track of them, especially the ones that come close to our planet.

2012 DA14 is a fairly typical near-Earth asteroid. It measures some 50 meters wide, neither very large nor very small, and is probably made of stone, as opposed to metal or ice. Yeomans estimates that an asteroid like 2012 DA14 flies past Earth, on average, every 40 years, yet actually strikes our planet only every 1200 years or so.

The impact of a 50-meter asteroid is not cataclysmic--unless you happen to be underneath it. Yeomans points out that a similar-sized object formed the mile wide Meteor Crater in Arizona when it struck about 50,000 years ago. "That asteroid was made of iron," he says, "which made it an especially potent impactor." Also, in 1908, something about the size of 2012 DA14 exploded in the atmosphere above Siberia, leveling hundreds of square miles of forest. Researchers are still studying the "Tunguska Event" for clues to the impacting object.

"2012 DA14 will definitely not hit Earth," emphasizes Yeomans. "The orbit of the asteroid is known well enough to rule out an impact."

Even so, it will come interestingly close. NASA radars will be monitoring the space rock as it approaches Earth closer than many man-made satellites. Yeomans says the asteroid will thread the gap between low-Earth orbit, where the ISS and many Earth observation satellites are located, and the higher belt of geosynchronous satellites, which provide weather data and telecommunications.

"The odds of an impact with a satellite are extremely remote," he says. Almost nothing orbits where DA14 will pass the Earth.

NASA's Goldstone radar in the Mojave Desert is scheduled to ping 2012 DA14 almost every day from Feb. 16th through 20th. The echoes will not only pinpoint the orbit of the asteroid, allowing researchers to better predict future encounters, but also reveal physical characteristics such as size, spin, and reflectivity. A key outcome of the observing campaign will be a 3D radar map showing the space rock from all sides.

During the hours around closest approach, the asteroid will brighten until it resembles a star of 8th magnitude. Theoretically, that's an easy target for backyard telescopes. The problem, points out Yeomans, is speed. "The asteroid will be racing across the sky, moving almost a full degree (or twice the width of a full Moon) every minute. That's going to be hard to track." Only the most experienced amateur astronomers are likely to succeed.

Those who do might experience a tiny chill when they look at their images. That really was a close shave.

For more information about 2012 DA and other asteroids of interest, visit NASA's Near-Earth Object Program web site: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov

29 January 2013

BBC Future Vision Art/Animation Competition


Please share this with your favorite artists and animators:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-21163116

The competition closes at 10:00 GMT on Friday, 8 March 2013.

This is a fantastic opportunity to get our space vision into the mainstream via BBC:

"We want you to send us your visual representation of the future.  There are two categories: still images and moving images (up to 50 seconds). So your entry can be a single photograph or drawing, an animation or video, or even a picture or video of a model or sculpture you've made. But it must be your own work."

12 January 2013

Brilliant Administration Response to Death Star Proposal

Read this brilliant Administration Response to the Citizen Petition for the US to construct a Death Star:

Official White House Response to Secure resources and funding, and begin construction of a Death Star by 2016.

This Isn't the Petition Response You're Looking For

By Paul Shawcross
The Administration shares your desire for job creation and a strong national defense, but a Death Star isn't on the horizon. Here are a few reasons:
  • The construction of the Death Star has been estimated to cost more than $850,000,000,000,000,000. We're working hard to reduce the deficit, not expand it.
  • The Administration does not support blowing up planets.
  • Why would we spend countless taxpayer dollars on a Death Star with a fundamental flaw that can be exploited by a one-man starship?
However, look carefully (here's how) and you'll notice something already floating in the sky -- that's no Moon, it's a Space Station! Yes, we already have a giant, football field-sized International Space Station in orbit around the Earth that's helping us learn how humans can live and thrive in space for long durations. The Space Station has six astronauts -- American, Russian, and Canadian -- living in it right now, conducting research, learning how to live and work in space over long periods of time, routinely welcoming visiting spacecraft and repairing onboard garbage mashers, etc. We've also got two robot science labs -- one wielding a laser -- roving around Mars, looking at whether life ever existed on the Red Planet.
Keep in mind, space is no longer just government-only. Private American companies, through NASA's Commercial Crew and Cargo Program Office (C3PO), are ferrying cargo -- and soon, crew -- to space for NASA, and are pursuing human missions to the Moon this decade.
Even though the United States doesn't have anything that can do the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs, we've got two spacecraft leaving the Solar System and we're building a probe that will fly to the exterior layers of the Sun. We are discovering hundreds of new planets in other star systems and building a much more powerful successor to the Hubble Space Telescope that will see back to the early days of the universe.
We don't have a Death Star, but we do have floating robot assistants on the Space Station, a President who knows his way around a light saber and advanced (marshmallow) cannon, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which is supporting research on building Luke's arm, floating droids, and quadruped walkers.
We are living in the future! Enjoy it. Or better yet, help build it by pursuing a career in a science, technology, engineering or math-related field. The President has held the first-ever White House science fairs and Astronomy Night on the South Lawn because he knows these domains are critical to our country's future, and to ensuring the United States continues leading the world in doing big things.
If you do pursue a career in a science, technology, engineering or math-related field, the Force will be with us! Remember, the Death Star's power to destroy a planet, or even a whole star system, is insignificant next to the power of the Force.
Paul Shawcross is Chief of the Science and Space Branch at the White House Office of Management and Budget
Tell us what you think about this response and We the People.

Blogger Comment: Of course the Aministration could seriously think about persuing job creation and taking us to the next level in space if it would look more seriously at the construction of Space Solar Power Stations (as is China and Japan).

17 August 2012

LAST DAY! Let NASA know your opinion on their Strategic Direction. Tell them: "Mine the Sky, Defend the Earth, Settle the Universe"

Today in the LAST DAY to provide inputs to the National Academies

PLEASE fill out public opinion for NASA Strategic Direction:
 
In the FY2012 appropriations bill that funds NASA, Congress requested an independent study of NASA's strategic direction. The study is being conducted by a committee of the National Research Council.

The study statement of task directs the committee to "recommend how NASA could establish and effectively communicate a common, unifying vision for NASA's strategic direction that encompasses NASA's varied missions."
 
Recommend you cite:
- "Mine the Sky, Defend the Earth, Settle the Universe"
- Goals from the NSS Philophy and Roadmap:
- Agenda of the SFF:
'a "frontier enabling" technology or policy is one which has as its effect the acceleration of the creation of low cost access to the space frontier for private citizens and companies,enables or accelerates our use of space resources,and/or accelerates the rate at which wealth can be generated in space.  In other words,is the project or policy going to provide a return on the national investment, if we define "return" to be the economically sustainablehuman habitation of space?"
 

12 August 2012

Asteroid Action Plans Form For Planetary Defense

From: http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_11_28_2011_p51-395551.xml#

Asteroid Action Plans Form For Planetary Defense

By Guy Norris
November 28, 2011
Guy Norris/Boulder, Colo.
Concepts for communicating the risks and managing the threat of asteroid impacts will be considered by the United Nations following an expert working group meeting in Colorado.
The Near-Earth Object (NEO) media/risk meeting came within days of a 300-meter (984-ft.)-plus-dia. asteroid passing between the Earth and the Moon on Nov 8, and as NASA closed on additional congressional funding of more than $20 million for an ongoing survey mission aimed at finding objects posing a potential collision threat.
Although acknowledged as a statistically rare, low-probability event, asteroid impacts are seen as potential global catastrophes. Now, with 1,265 asteroids currently listed as potentially hazardous to Earth and with around 100 or more new potential impacts currently being flagged each month by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's automated collision-monitoring Sentry system, the threat is being taken increasingly seriously by governments and space agencies.
According to NASA, as of Nov 3 8,421 NEOs have been discovered, of which 830 are asteroids with a diameter of approximately 1 km or larger. A NEO is an asteroid or a comet with an orbit close to that of Earth in which the perihelion (or nearest point to the Sun) is less than 1.3 astronomical units (1.3 times the distance from the Earth to the Sun). Potentially hazardous NEOs are 500 ft. or so in diameter and follow orbital paths that come within 4.65 million mi. (7.48 million km) of Earth.
The meeting, held at University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, was organized by the Secure World Foundation and aimed at a draft report for the U.N. Action Team 14 working group on NEOs. The team forms part of the U.N.'s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Scientific and Technical Subcommittee, and will present guidance to the U.N. working group at a NEO-mitigation meeting in Vienna, in February 2012.
Following a review in June next year, final recommendations will form the blueprint for possible U.N. action from 2013 onward. The working group is studying setting up an information, analysis and warning network (IAWN) to coordinate data about NEO detection, orbit analysis, impact prediction and notifications. The Colorado meeting was focused on IAWN communications, including protocols used by similar warning nets dealing with natural disasters such as hurricanes and tsunamis, as well as improving public education on the NEO phenomenon.
Parallel work is underway to set up a NEO Mission Planning and Operations Group (MPOG) that will coordinate international space agencies on the planning and conduct of missions to threatening asteroids. The MPOG will be modeled on the inter-space agency group established to monitor space debris.
The conference included discussion of communication strategies for events ranging from those with almost no warning such as the TC3 asteroid which exploded over southern Sudan in 2008 less than 21 hr. after being detected, to decades-long scenarios such as the Apophis asteroid which could potentially impact Earth in 2036.
In particular, the meeting focused on effective ways of communicating the reality of threats and evacuation notices to predicted impact zones in short-term warning scenarios. For longer-term threats, the group weighed the geopolitical implications of potential mitigation strategies involving speeding up or slowing down an asteroid. By altering an asteroid's speed, its trajectory could be altered to either miss the Earth altogether or be deflected toward less-populated areas. Such choices inevitably involve increasing the risk to certain nations and regions, while decreasing it for others, raising enormous policy questions.
Social scientists, invited to advise the group, called for transparent debate from agencies over both warnings and mitigation strategies. Dennis Mileti, director emeritus of University of Colorado's National Hazards Center, warned “the biggest issue will not be panic but getting them to take your NEO warning seriously. Human beings need to dichotomize risk. That's how they decide to do something about it or not. Don't try and explain your science to the public.”
Former Apollo astronaut and asteroid awareness trailblazer Russell Schweickart warned greater efforts and survey systems are needed. “We have many more objects that will be discovered. We're not running out of objects, we're running out of capability of our telescopes.” While roughly 94% of the largest NEOs are believed to have been located, “there are 60% still not detected in the 300-meter or so size,” said Schweickart, who is co-founder and past chairman of the B612 Foundation dedicated to protecting Earth from asteroid strikes. Detection numbers are even lower for smaller NEOs between 100 and 300 meters in diameter with only 10% of the estimated population accounted for, while for the smallest ones—like the approximately 50-meter asteroid that airburst over Tunguska, Siberia, in 1908—“we're below 1% of total objects discovered. When it comes to objects that can do serious damage we're nowhere near a full inventory yet,” he added.
NASA NEO Observations Program Executive Manager Lindley Johnson said securing allocated NEO funding is “critical to continuation of our existing survey programs like the radars for instance, and to do sorely needed upgrades for the Arecibo (radio telescope) in particular—that has suffered from a lack of funding over the years.” Johnson added money will also support analysis “to determine what the next generation survey should be.”
Options include new land-based telescope projects like the Atlas (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope as well as space-based systems. These could include hosted payload-type concepts in which a staring array would be mounted on the “backside of a commercial payload,” scanning as it orbits the Earth. Such schemes are less capable than a dedicated survey telescope, but much more affordable. “We really need to ferret out the best solution,” said Johnson.

Space-Based Solar Power Could Arrive in Ten Years and Create Millions of Jobs, Say Researchers

from: http://www.wfs.org/content/space-based-solar-power-could-arrive-ten-years-and-create-millions-jobs-says-researcher

Space-Based Solar Power Could Arrive in Ten Years and Create Millions of Jobs, Say Researchers

ptucker's picture
A space-based solar power (SSP) system capable of meeting the energy needs of millions of people could be "deployed within a decade using technologies that are today in the laboratory," says John C. Mankins, a former manager of the Advanced Concepts Studies Office of Space Flight for NASA and widely considered one of the world’s leading experts on space-based solar power.
On Monday (November 14th) Mankins took to the podium of the National Press Club in downtown Washington, D.C. to reveal the findings of a new report Space Solar Power: The First International Assessment of Space Solar Power: Opportunities, Issues and Potential Pathways Forward (IAA, 2011).

CREDIT: JOHN C. MANKINS
The U.S. Department of Energy has previously suggested that sending solar-collecting satellites to space would continue to be prohibitively expensive and that less than 1% of global energy use would come from space-based solar projects by 2035.
Mankins says that engineers will be able to demonstrate multi-megawatt power transmission, with an energy cost of $1 to $5 per kilowatt hour, within 10 to 15 years. "It’s something that can be accomplished by this generation of engineers. This initial demonstration could be done without the development of a new reusable launch system."
The report served as a very public endorsement from the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) of Mankins’s longstanding proposal for spaced-based solar power. As previously covered in THE FUTURIST, the Mankins plan calls for
"…Many thousands of small, identical solar-gathering modules [coming] together to form a much larger whole, the same way that thousands of similar ants come together to form colonies and millions of quite similar Web sites and Web servers form the Internet... The logistics of building and launching a type A mini-satellite 9,000 times (then type B, then type C) is less daunting than figuring out how to launch a few extremely complex, independently functioning machines."
The satellites would beam energy to Earth using microwaves. Mankins points out that the energy transfer would be completely safe, harming neither humans nor wildlife that passed beneath them. The energy would be collected on Earth via rectennas that could be composed of a simple mesh, rather than bulky panels, and would have a low impact on the surrounding environment.
"The consensus is that [SSP] is technically achievable. But because of Mankins’s new approach, it appears the model will be economically viable in a much shorter time frame than previously thought possible," said Mark Hopkins, the Senior Vice President of the National Space Society and one of the sponsors for the event.
"The networked approached really suggests that a breakthrough is possible in terms of schedule, and with the modular program a breakthrough in terms of cost," said Mankins. He suggested that a pilot demonstration could be launched for $10 billion dollars, within ten years, and could generate ten megawatts electricity, comparable to small terrestrial solar plants today.
The advantages of space-based solar power over conventional solar designs are efficiency and reliability. Solar power collection in space is seven to ten times more efficient than is collection on Earth, and, of course, harnessing the Sun’s power in space can happen twenty four hours a day with no interruption.
Future space-based solar power projects could lead to jobs for five million people, who would build and launch the satellites, according to the study. "These are high tech jobs. Space based solar power could be more important than the railroads in the 19th Century and automobiles in the 20th," said Hopkins.
Mankins and Hopkins were careful to point out that SSP would not suffice as a replacement for terrestrial solar power programs. But the two could compliment one another. They believe that SSP could comprise up to 5% of the Earth’s future energy consumption. "If it works well we can become net energy exporters," said Hopkins.
Mankins says that because the satellites would use microwaves rather than lasers, they couldn't be used as weapons. But he concedes that there is some geostrategic advantage to being the first county to implement SSP. "This was an international study. My personal belief is the first one to get there realizes the benefits of building the infrastructure and the capability."
Japan has long been a thought leader in this field of research and the list of reviewers of the Mankins report is heavy with Japanese names.
Hopkins points out that there is now growing interest in space-based solar power China, as well.
"The development of a solar power station in space will fundamentally change the way in which people exploit and obtain power," Chinese space technology expert Xiji Wang said at event in August. "Whoever takes the lead in the development and utilization of clean and renewable energy and the space and aviation industry will be the world leader."
Download the paper.
from: http://missoulanews.bigskypress.com/IndyBlog/archives/2011/11/14/extra-extra-in-other-news-online  
Woe Be We
After Charlie Bolden, the administrator of NASA, declared that deflecting a near-earth object (NEO), such as an asteroid or a comet, will be “what keeps the dinosaurs—we are the dinosaurs, by the way—from becoming extinct a second time,” he admitted that the space agency couldn’t afford to tackle that task, even if it wanted to. He explained that the annual federal allocation for “planetary defense” is $5.8 million, which represents a mere 0.03 percent of NASA’s budget and is barely adequate merely to locate NEOs and track their orbits. (The New Yorker)

NASA Administrator: "The NEAs provide the opportunity to send humans beyond the solar orbit of Earth while holding compelling science and planetary defense knowledge-building potential. In addition to possible scientific prospects, missions to NEAs would afford astronauts the experience applicable to deeper-space missions that would eventually contribute to establishing a permanent human presence beyond Earth. There are a few asteroids which could be visited by the SLS and Orion MPCV in the timeframe under consideration. Additional NEA survey data will be required to identify and refine the catalog of potential targets." from: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=39082

Deflecting Killer Asteroids Away From Earth: How We Could Do It

From: http://www.space.com/13524-deflecting-killer-asteroids-earth-impact-methods.html

Deflecting Killer Asteroids Away From Earth: How We Could Do It

Date: 07 November 2011 Time: 06:53 AM ET


An illustration of how solar sails might help deflect the asteroid Apophis.
CREDIT: Olivier Boisard

A huge asteroid's close approach to Earth tomorrow (Nov. 8) reinforces that we live in a cosmic shooting gallery, and we can't just sit around waiting to get hit again, experts say.
Asteroid 2005 YU55, which is the size of an aircraft carrier, will zip within the moon's orbit tomorrow, but it poses no danger of hitting us for the foreseeable future. Eventually, however, one of its big space rock cousins will barrel straight toward Earth, as asteroids have done millions of times throughout our planet's history.
If we want to avoid going the way of the dinosaurs, which were wiped out by an asteroid strike 65 million years ago, we're going to have to deflect a killer space rock someday, researchers say. Fortunately, we know how to do it.

"We have the capability — physically, technically — to protect the Earth from asteroid impacts," said former astronaut Rusty Schweickart, chairman of the B612 Foundation, a group dedicated to predicting and preventing catastrophic asteroid strikes. "We are now able to very slightly and subtly reshape the solar system in order to enhance human survival."
In fact, we have several different techniques at our disposal to nudge killer asteroids away from Earth. Here's a brief rundown of the possible arrows in our planetary defense quiver. [The 7 Strangest Asteroids in the Solar System ]

The gravity tractor
If researchers detect a potentially dangerous space rock in plenty of time, the best option may be to send a robotic probe out to rendezvous and ride along with it.
The spacecraft's modest gravity would exert a tug on the asteroid as the two cruise through space together. Over months or years, this "gravity tractor" method would pull the asteroid into a different, more benign orbit.
"You can get a very precise change in the orbit for the final part of the deflection using a technology of this kind," Schweickart said in late September, during a presentation at Caltech in Pasadena, Calif., called "Moving an Asteroid."
Humanity has already demonstrated the know-how to pull off such a mission. Multiple probes have met up with faraway asteroids in deep space, including NASA's Dawn spacecraft, which is currently orbiting the huge space rock Vesta.
And in 2005, the Japanese Hayabusa probe even plucked some pieces off the asteroid Itokawa, sending them back to Earth for analysis.
Smash 'em up
We could also be more aggressive with our asteroid rendezvous craft, relying on brute force rather than a gentle gravitational tug. That is, we could simply slam a robotic probe into the threatening space rock to change its orbit.
We know how to do this, too. In 2005, for example, NASA sent an impactor barreling into the comet Tempel 1 to determine the icy object's composition.
The impactor approach would not be as precise as the gravity tractor technique, Schweickart said, but it could still do the job.
There's also the possibility of blowing the asteroid to smithereens with a nuclear weapon. The nuclear option could come into play if the dangerous space rock is too big to knock around with a kinetic impactor,  but it would likely be a weapon of last resort.
For one thing, blasting an asteroid to bits might end up doing more harm than good, said fellow presentation panelist Bill Nye, executive director of the Planetary Society.
"Momentum is conserved," Nye said. "If you blow it up, then the whole giant spray of rocks is coming at the Earth instead of one."
The politics involved in mobilizing use of a nuke could also be a cause for concern, Schweickart said. It will likely be hard enough to convince the world to mount any sort of asteroid-deflection mission in time, and adding nuclear missiles to the equation would make things much stickier.
"The potential use of nuclear explosives for deflection cannot currently be ruled out," Schweickart said. "But it is an extremely low probability that they will be needed."
Close Encounters of the Comet Kind: A Brief History
This image of Comet Tempel 1 was taken by NASA's Deep Impact spacecraft on July 4, 2005, 67 seconds after a probe crashed into the comet.
CREDIT: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UMD
'Mirror bees' and foil wrap
While we're pretty sure that gravity tractors and kinetic impactor probes would work, researchers are also looking into several other ideas. [Photos: Asteroids in Deep Space]
There's the "mirror bee" concept, for example, which would launch a swarm of small, mirror-bearing spacecraft to a dangerous asteroid. These mini-probes would aim reflected sunlight at one spot on the space rock, heating it up so much that rock is vaporized, creating propulsive jets.
"The reaction of that gas or material being ejected from the asteroid would nudge it off-course," Nye said.
The Planetary Society is helping fund research into mirror bees, Nye said. And while he said the concept isn't yet ready for deployment or demonstration, he stressed that it's not too far off, either.
"Maybe five years," Nye told SPACE.com. "It's not 30 years."
Nye also floated another, more speculative idea. It might be possible to move an asteroid, he said, by wrapping it in reflective foil, like a giant baked potato. Photons from the sun might then nudge the space rock away from Earth, in much the same way they propel spacecraft equipped with solar sails.
"This might work, even if the thing is rotating," Nye said. "OK, make no promises. But it's something to invest in."
Passing the intelligent life test
The biggest key to deflecting dangerous asteroids, researchers say, is detecting them with plenty of lead time to take appropriate action. We'd like to have a least a decade of notice, NASA scientists have said.
It'll take awhile, after all, to mobilize and launch a deflection mission, and for that mission to do its job, especially if we go the gravity tractor route.
We need to make sure we can rise to the challenge when a big, threatening asteroid shows up on our radar, Schweickart and Nye said. Civilization's very survival depends on it.
"If there is a community of intelligent life out in the universe ... those intelligent beings will have already conquered this challenge," Schweickart said. "Our entrance exam to that community of intelligent life is to pass this test."
You can follow SPACE.com senior writer Mike Wall on Twitter: @michaeldwall. Follow SPACE.com for the latest in space science and exploration news on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

Asteroid Threat Sparks "NEOShield Project" To Assess Earth Defenses: Is This the End of the World?


From: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/289033/20120128/asteroid-threat-neoshield-end-world-doomsday-collision.htm
By ambrosia sabrina: Subscribe to ambrosia's
January 28, 2012 6:39 AM EST
An asteroid - Asteroid BX34 - and its close encounter with Earth on Friday, as well as the solar storms last week, sparked apocalyptic hysteria across nations and even called for global mitigation measures to be implemented in the wake of an impending doomsday threat.
While it may not be that 2012 is necessarily the end of the world, think-tanks across the world have taken the threat of such earnestly and have launched an international project to assess the threat posed by asteroids or comets, while looking for solutions to protect Earth from such impacts.
According to Space.com, the project "NEOShield" is a European-funded program led by the German Aerospace Center. The project has roped in the finest scientists from universities and industrial partners in Germany, France, the UK, Spain, the U.S. and Russia. The consensus seems to be that the project will take three-and-a-half years.
The scientific side of this will include the analysis of observational data on Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and laboratory experiments in which projectiles are fired at asteroid surface analog materials with different compositions, densities, porosities and structures," Alan Harris, a senior scientist and NEOShield project leader said in a statement. "We need to understand how the momentum transfer from a kinetic impactor to an asteroid depends on the physical characteristics of the asteroid," he added. The kinetic impactor that Harris referred to is a planetary defense device used to deflect NEOs from their impact paths and thereby avoid catastrophic events.
Despite the fact that NEO threats may seem distant events, experts quoted in a BBC report believe the planet's geologic and biologic history have provided substantial evidence of such impacts.
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A large number of meteoroids enter the Earth's atmosphere every day; amounting to more than a hundred tons of material. However, most of these are quite small and vaporize completely before hitting the surface. Unfortunately, NASA believes a football field-sized object will hit the Earth approximately every 2,000 years, causing significant damage to the areas hit. The most devastating effects, however, are usually caused by objects "large enough to threaten Earth's civilization", the space agency added. These, fortunately, are predicted to come around only once in every few million years.
Scientists across the world are doing their part in preventing asteroid collisions. Nevertheless, popular doomsday prophecies will not go away.
The ancient Mayans, for example, are commonly believed to have predicted the end of the world on Dec. 21, 2012. Other doomsday prophesies such as those of Nostradamus indicate the possibility of a Third World War and a "comet" that suddenly appears out of the sky and strikes the Earth, resulting in devastation. The Biblical apocalypse also points out to an asteroid or meteor-like collision, albeit with no reference to any date.

“Asteroid Next” missions: Proving Grounds for future crewed Mars missions


from: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/12/asteroid-missions-proving-grounds-future-crewed-mars-missions/ 
 
December 6th, 2011 by Chris Gebhardt As NASA continues to define and plan for the future of human space exploration of the solar system beyond Low Earth Orbit, the Human Space Exploration Community’s Workshop on the GER – in cooperation with NASA – has outlined the potential path the U.S. space agency will follow in the build up to eventual crewed missions to Near Earth Asteroids.
The Basics: Setting the stage and making sure we’re ready:
As has always been the case with NASA, getting humankind to an asteroid will involve a phased approach beginning with utilization of the premiere science laboratory NASA and its international partners have spent the last 13 years constructing in Low Earth Orbit (LEO): the International Space Station.
According to a NASA presentation at the Human Space Exploration Community Workshop on the GER, “Targeted utilization of the ISS to advance capabilities needed for human exploration” is the first step in making the “Asteroid Next” path a reality.
An initial focus on the ISS is a logical step in the process to moving humanity beyond LEO as the science lab provides an excellent platform for continuous learning – in both a technological and human experience sense – for the types of long-duration missions that will be needed to execute a mission to a Near Earth Asteroid (NEA).
However, equally as important as using the ISS will be NASA’s ability to adequately reach and utilize the Space Station – something that will rely on the new commercial development contracts NASA has with certain burgeoning commercial space companies as well as the development of NASA’s new SLS (Space Launch System) rocket.
In fact, Commercial Crew and Commercial Cargo Servicing and Support Systems are listed as the two most immediate and important/decisive factors in making the “Asteroid Next” plan a reality.
But it cannot be overlooked that while commercial contracts, vehicles, and services are deemed significantly important to the “Asteroid Next” philosophy, so too are numerous robotic precursor missions prior to 2020 on the part of the NASA, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency), ESA (European Space Agency), CSA (Canadian Space Agency), and Roscosmos (the Russian Federal Space Agency) – some of which are already in flight and some of which have yet to launch.
In fact, these five major space agencies are all on track to complete NEA fly-bys and samplings before the end of the decade, missions that would eventually lead to two robotic precursor missions to two NEAs in 2024 and 2027.
If the development side of the equation does in fact come to fruition (from a vehicle, technology, and precursor standpoint), the “Asteroid Next” presentation demonstrates an ability to launch the first crewed NEA mission by 2028.
Click here for other NEO Articles: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/neo/
Phase I: ISS utilization and initial capability development/demonstration:
Under this first phase of the plan, which would begin in 2012 and continue through 2019, the development of the technology and knowledge necessary for NEA missions would be created both in orbit on the ISS and on the ground.
For the ground side of development, significant resources would be devoted to the development of the next generation of space vehicles, including the SLS rocket, a new Russian rocket, an Exploration Test Module, and robotic servicing and support systems.
Specifically, the presentation outlines NASA’s SLS rocket, the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), Roscosmos’s Next Generation Space Launch Vehicle, Roscosmos’s Next Generation Spacecraft (“Crew vehicle capable of delivering a crew to exploration destination and back to Earth” – 500mb of Russian documentation available in L2), and a new Cryogenic Propellant Stage (CPS) – an “in-space stage that provides delta V to architecture elements using traditional chemical rocket engines, cryogens, and storables and may include the capability for propellant transfer.”
Moreover, the presentation also outlines the Servicing Support Systems, defined here as “systems and tools to enable crew and robots to service in-space systems and assemble larger capabilities, including extravehicular activity suits.”
Under this plan, the “Mission Scenario: Asteroid Next” presentation notes that “advancing in-space habitation capability for long duration” missions, developing “Subsystem high reliability and commonality and advanced extravehicular activity and robotics capabilities,” as well as developing “long-term storage and management of cryogenic fluids” technologies are all necessary in the coming decade to accomplish a 2028 crewed NEA mission.
Moreover, in the arena of in-space technology development, the presentation specifically notes the Deep Space Habitat, an “in-space habitat with relevant subsystems for the purpose of advancing capabilities and systems requiring access to a deep space environment.”
Also beginning the development process at this time would be the Advanced In-Space Propulsion Stage – a “nontraditional propulsion technology, such as high-power electric and nuclear propulsion” that would eventually be used in place of traditional chemical propulsion to deliver crew and In-Space Destination Systems (“systems [that] have the capabilities that enable humans to effectively complete in-space destination objectives by enabling access”) to NEAs.
This stage of the developmental process would also include “technology demonstrations” on the ground and in orbit from 2012-2017 leading up to the launch of the Exploration Test Module in 2018.
This Exploration Test Module would then be the host of at least three crewed mission in 2020 and 2021 via the SLS and MPCV. These three missions would be designed to fundamentally increase our knowledge of human living outside of Low Earth Orbit and develop our robotic capabilities.
Phase II: Cis-Lunar servicing and deployment:
Following the first stage of the plan, the second phase would see crewed missions to the Exploration Test Module in the initial years of the 2020 decade.
As related by the “Asteroid Next” presentation, these mission would be “In-space habitation for long durations in the appropriate radiation environment” to gain further knowledge and information on “radiation protection and measurement techniques; demonstration of beyond Low Earth Orbit re-entry speeds; subsystem high reliability and commonality [and] repair at the lowest level [while] living without a supply chain” – something which is extremely important for eventual multi-month/year missions away from Earth.
Additional milestones for this phase of “Asteroid Next” include development and activation of “Automated delivery and deployment of systems, long-term storage and management of cryogenic fluids, and simulations of near-Earth asteroid mission operational concepts.”
Moreover, the Exploration Test Module would quickly be replaced by the Deep Space Habitat (DSH) to be launched by the SLS rocket and delivered to the Earth-Moon 1 Lagrange point – which gives the added benefit of practicing operations in a gravitationally null point in the Earth-Moon system.
For the DSH, a total of six crewed mission would be planned. While the missions would be tailored in terms of duration to fit specific mission requirements, opening assessments point to an initial 2023 flight to the DSH lasting 14 days with 4 crew members.
This would be followed by an un-crewed resupply mission to DSH by the SLS rocket in preparation for a second crewed mission the following year. This second crewed mission would also fly with 4 people and last for 30 days. The third mission would be flown a year after the second and consist of a 60-day mission with four crewmembers.
The next year would see a four-person crew staying for 90 days at the DSH before a 180-day mission the following year.
This would all lead up to a full year (365-day) mission to DSH in the sixth year.
Under this plan, six crewed SLS rockets would be needed, as would two cargo SLS rockets and two resupply SLS rockets. The missions would result in 739 days of crewed habitation on the DSH.
However, the option would also exist to execute a myriad of missions. As noted by the “Asteroid Next” presentation, “Multiple options available for crew duration depending on the type and number of cargo launches committed to support resupply for increasing mission duration.”
In all, the option exists to conduct five 30-day missions followed by a 365-day mission (resulting in 515 days of crewed habitation at DSH and two SLS resupply rockets); a 30-day, 90-day, 180-day mission followed by three 365-day missions for a total of 1,395 days of crewed habitation with three SLS resupply rockets and a total of 11 SLS launches; or six straight 365-day missions resulting in 2,190 days of crewed habitation at DSH, four SLS resupply missions, and 12 total SLS rocket launches over six years.
Simultaneous to the crewed missions to DSH would be two robotic precursor missions to the NEAs that would be targeted for the crewed NEA missions.
As noted by the “Asteroid Next” presentation, “Some NEAs are solid, some are an aggregation of particles, and all rotate at various rates. Precursor robotic missions to the eventual human mission targets will allow us to refine destination systems performance that will be required to explore the chosen NEA.”
Under this plan, the robotic precursor mission would arrive between three to five years ahead of the crewed mission so that mission planners, engineers, and scientists could discuss and examine any and all options, system designs, and scientific experiments that would need to be in place for the follow-on crewed mission.
In particular, these robotic precursor missions would be sent to identify precise “orbital position, system type (e.g. binary or ternary), spin rate, debris field, internal structure, near-surface structure and regolith, gravitational field, mineralogical/chemical composition, thermal properties, and radiation environment” – all necessary items to have cataloged before the arrival of humans.
At this point, the stage would be set for a crewed mission to a NEA.
Phase III: Deep Space Exploration:
With Phase III comes fruition.  During this phase of operation, humankind would make its first two crewed trips to NEAs.
Under this part of the “Asteroid Next” philosophy, demonstrations of “in-space habitation capability for long durations and advanced in-space propulsion systems” would be tested – knowledge and technologies that would eventually be used to take humans to Mars.
In addition, a continued focus on “long-term storage and management of cryogenic fluids, automated delivery and deployment of systems, subsystems high reliability and commonality [and] repair at the lowest level [while] living without a supply chain, and demonstration of Mars mission transportation operational concepts” would be had.
Under this plan, the first crewed mission to a NEA would begin in 2028 and conclude around 2030, with the second crewed NEA mission beginning in 2033 and concluding in 2035.
During the missions, the crews would spend approximately seven, 14, or 30 days at the NEA of choice, conducting surface EVA missions to deploy “probes (radar, acoustics, seismometers, etc.), experiments, and planetary defense devices.”
These surface missions would be accomplished with small utility craft while the main “mothership stack” – consisting of the In-Space Enhanced Propulsion unit, the DSH, and the MPCV – remained at a standoff distance from the NEA of approximately 1-2 kilometers.
(Images: L2 Content, NASA)
(NSF and L2 are providing full transition level coverage, available no where else on the internet, from Orion and SLS to ISS and COTS/CRS/CCDEV, to European and Russian vehicles.)
(Click here to join L2: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/l2/ )

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev on Planetary Defense

From: http://larouchepac.com/node/22979

Patrushev Speaks on International Planetary Defense Cooperation
Speaking at a press conference on June 8, at the conclusion of the global security forum just held in St. Petersburg, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated that the "space threat from asteroids" had been an important topic at the meeting. He called for international cooperation on readiness and potential deflection measures.
According to Russian wire reports, Patrushev said, "We are not be in immediate danger, but such a danger may arise. And we must understand how to eliminate this danger. We need to prepare beforehand. There are doable options for removing the danger. If we work on improving them, especially on an international scale, this will not be out of reach as it would be for just one country, but it can really be done. So we need to do the forecasting of when and how to influence these [space] objects."
This statement confirms what both Patrushev and Vitali Davydov, deputy head of Roscosmos, had stated in Moscow in April, that the subject of this third such international security conference would include, as one of its major subjects of discussion, the necessity of international cooperation for asteroid defense. (Click here for links to the original report on this announcement)
See also:
Update on Defense of Earth
Interview with Vladimir Popovkin
Strategic Defense of Humanity
From: http://planetarydefense.blogspot.com/2012/06/recent-planetary-defense-related.html

Recent Planetary Defense Related Technical Papers

Title: Development of a handbook and an on-line tool on defending Earth against Potentially Hazardous Objects
Author(s): Nahum Melamed, The Aerospace Corporation Received 3 February 2012. Accepted 21 March 2012.
Available online 23 April 2012.
Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.03.021

Title: Hypervelocity nuclear interceptors for asteroid disruption
Author(s): B. Wie Vance Coffman Endowed Chair Professor, Asteroid Deflection Research Center, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Iowa State University Received 14 February 2012. Accepted 16 April 2012. Available online 4 May 2012.
Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.04.028

Title: Deflecting earth-threatening asteroids using the solar collector: An improved model
Author(s): Gregory L. Matloff, Physics Department, New York City College of Technology, CUNY Received 22 November 2011. Revised 24 April 2012. Accepted 27 April 2012. Available online 29 May 2012.
Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.04.028

Title: A comparison between rubble-pile and monolithic targets in impact simulations: Application to asteroid satellites and family size distributions
Author(s): Paula G. Benavideza, Daniel D. Durda, Brian L. Enke, William F. Bottke, David Nesvorný, Derek C. Richardson, Erik Asphaug, William J. Merline Received 29 March 2011. Revised 18 January 2012. Accepted 19 January 2012. Available online 17 February 2012.
Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2012.01.015

Title: Next Gen NEAR: Near Earth Asteroid Human Robotic Precursor Mission Concept
Author(s): Rivkin, Andrew S.; Kirby, Karen; Cheng, Andrew F.; Gold, Robert; Kelly, Daniel; Reed, Cheryl; Abell, Paul; Garvin, James; Landis, Rob Link: NASA Technical Reports Server
Link: PDF

Title: Comparing the Earth impact flux from comets and near-Earth asteroids
Author(s): Donald K. Yeomans, Alan B. Chamberlin, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Received 20 January 2012. Revised 13 February 2012. Accepted 6 March 2012. Available online 5 April 2012.
Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2012.04.028

Title: Finding Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) Destinations for Human Exploration: Implications for Astrobiology
Author(s): Abell, P. A.; Mazanek, D. D.; Barbee, B. W.; Mink, R. G.; Landis, R. R.; Adamo, D. R.; Johnson, L. N.; Yeomans, D. K.; Reeves, D. M.; Larman, K. T.; Drake, B. G.; Friedensen, V. P.
Link: NASA Technical Reports Server
Link: PDF

Title: Human Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids: An Update on NASA's Current Status and Proposed Activities for Small Body Exploration
Author(s): Abell, P. A.; Mazanek, D. D.; Barbee, B. W.; Mink, R. G.; Landis, R. R.; Adamo, D. R.; Johnson, L. N.; Yeomans, D. K.; Reeves, D. M.; Larman, K. T.; Drake, B. G.; Friedensen, V. P.
Link: NASA Technical Reports Server
Link: PDF

Title: Human Mission to Asteroids in the Context of Future Space Exploration Studies
Author(s): P. Messidoro, F. Fenoglio, M. Pasquinelli, and J. Gottlieb, Thales Alenia Space Italia S.p.A.
Link: PDF

From: http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2012-04/how-it-would-work-destroying-incoming-killer-asteroid-nuclear-blast 

How it Would Work: Destroying an Incoming Killer Asteroid With a Nuclear Blast

How It Works 2012
Simulations show how unleashing Earth's destructive arsenal into deep space could save the planet

Earth, and the Near-Earth Objects that Threaten It ESA - P.Carril
One way or another, it’s on everyone’s minds, living somewhere in the back of our collective consciousness. Hollywood knows it, and continues to plumb it for box office numbers. Sci-fi is rife with it. The fossil record shouts warnings across millennia about it. Even the dinosaurs developed a particular, albeit brief, loathing for it. The killer asteroid--the one that we might never even see coming--could end life on this planet and there would be nothing humans could do about it. It creates a kind of helplessness that’s difficult to even think about, and it’s Robert Weaver’s job to think about it all the time.
Weaver, a scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), doesn’t hunt for killer asteroids, but he does study the ways humans might use their vast nuclear arsenals--designed to wipe each other off the face of the planet--to save the whole of humanity from a catastrophic asteroid impact. Weaver has been running simulations on LANL’s Cielo supercomputer to determine humanity’s capacity to mitigate an impending asteroid threat using a one-megaton nuclear energy source--one roughly 50 times more powerful than the blasts inflicted upon Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the close of World War II.
There’s more than one way to divert an asteroid of course. With the proper notice, like that afforded us by the asteroid Apophis or 2011 AG5, humans could fly a spacecraft out to intercept an asteroid in deep space. This spacecraft could impact the asteroid to nudge it slightly off course, or it could fly abreast of the threat, acting as a kind of “gravity tractor” whose slight gravitational tug would push it off its collision course over time. It’s even been suggested that a spacecraft could bombard one side of a killer asteroid with a laser, heating it enough to change its orbital characteristics and its path.
That’s if we have time. “From my perspective, the nuclear option is for the surprise asteroid or comet that we haven’t seen before, one that basically comes out of nowhere and we have just a few months to respond to it,” Weaver says. In other words, lacking the time to deploy something more elegant, we can pull out the method of last resort and blast the threat out of existence with the biggest energy source at our disposal. There’s no telling exactly how an asteroid deflection mission would transpire because it’s never been tried before, but scientists like Weaver are hard at work simulating the ins and outs of mitigating of an incoming impactor. It’s knowledge we hope we’ll never have to use, but should we ever have to, this is how it would work.
Interception
Weaver conducted a whole parameter study on his simulated asteroid mitigation mission that included all kinds of variables including composition, the size of the constituent rocks making up the asteroid, the porosity of the asteroid, and so on. But he had to start with some fixed parameters. For the 3-D simulation (depicted in the video below) he chose to model the potato-shaped Itokawa asteroid, the same one visited by Japan’s Hayabusa asteroid lander back in 2005.
Weaver’s simulations don’t address the delivery of a nuclear energy source to the asteroid, though there are people out there who do study that very issue. For instance, at the biannual Planetary Defense Conference global partners hash out the thorny politics inherent in hurling the world’s most powerful weapons into space for peaceful purposes.
But we know we can intercept asteroids in deep space. Japan’s Hayabusa probe actually landed on and returned from Itokawa during the last decade, and NASA’s Dawn spacecraft is currently in orbit around the asteroid 4 Vesta in the asteroid belt. We’ve even crashed into a comet before, via NASA’s Deep Impact mission, which hurled a probe into the center of comet 9P/Tempel. If it’s close enough to be a threat, we can rendezvous with it.


Detonation
Weaver’s simulations have shown something that should boost humanity’s confidence in this endeavor: for an asteroid of the oblong shape and size of Itokawa--roughly 1,640 feet across--there’s no need to drill down into the center of the asteroid to mitigate the threat. “I varied the location of the explosion from the center of the asteroid to the surface of the asteroid both along the long side and the short side,” Weaver says. “The center was by far the most effective because it just blew the whole thing apart. But effective enough was an explosion at the surface of the asteroid, both on the short side and the long side, with the short side being most effective. Once I discovered that, my study focused on surface explosions because it’s just a much simpler mission.”
A surface explosion, known as a contact burst, wouldn’t actually take place right at the surface. Based on what we know about asteroid composition--and there’s still much to be learned--many asteroids are more like huge orbiting piles of smaller rocks than cohesive, solid chunks of hard material. There appears to be a soft dust layer, known as the regolith, that covers asteroids like Itokawa, a layer that could be as much as 30 feet deep. A nuclear energy source rammed into an asteroid could penetrate down into this layer with little trouble, giving it some of the kinetic advantages of being buried within the asteroid. And once the energy source is in direct contact with the asteroid, it’s all pretty much over with.
“The big plume that you see coming out of the top of the asteroid in the simulation is the effect of all that heated rock in the vicinity of the explosion being expelled from the asteroid at high velocities,” Weaver says. “There’s rock-to-rock kinetic energy transfer that happens. These rock-to-rock interactions propagate the energy from the surface all the way through to the opposite end of the asteroid, totally disrupting these rubble piles.”
In other words, the blast is transferred all the way through the asteroid, scattering the once cohesive rubble in every direction. The asteroid threat is no more.
Aftermath
In the simulations, the asteroids essentially come apart, hurling rock outward with the force of the nuclear blast. But the most visible objection to this kind of asteroid mitigation is the idea that by blowing an asteroid apart, we might just create many smaller rocks that could still be big enough to threaten Earth. Moreover, if the rocks aren’t sufficiently scattered the asteroid could potentially recombine under their own gravity, making the nuclear blast a moot point.
But Weaver’s simulations showed something unexpected: the rock expelled from the far side of the asteroid by the blast was kicked out at velocities that surprised even Weaver. Given that the escape velocity--the velocity at which the constituent rocks need to be traveling to escape the asteroid’s own gravity--for an asteroid Itokawa’s size is less than a centimeter per second, the possibility of the asteroid recombining after the blast is virtually non-existent. “In my 2-D calculations I’m seeing velocities imparted to expelled rock on the opposite side of the asteroid of meters per second,” Weaver says. “The escape velocity for an asteroid such as the one I’m looking at is fractions of a centimeter per second. I was calculating velocities of expelled rock at one to ten meters per second, well in excess--by orders of magnitude--of the escape velocity. That was a surprise to me and gave me some confidence that this really is an effective mitigation technique. The asteroid will not recollect, and it will not pose a hazard of a bunch of smaller rocks hitting the Earth.”
This, of course, is according to the calculations.
“All this depends obviously on exactly where the intercept is done, how far away from the Earth it is, how much time we have left--and all of these are unknowns until we discover a threatening asteroid,” Weaver says. “All of these assumptions are assumptions. What I think I’m bringing to the table for the first time are truly validated simulations of these non-uniform, non-circular compositions that will hopefully give policy makers a better understanding of what their options are.”
With those options defined, at least for the scenario of an Itokawa-sized threatening asteroid, Weaver will next turn to an expanding set of parameters simulating larger and larger rocks of varying compositions up to the size of a “dinosaur killer” (about 6.2 miles across). To that end, Weaver and LANL will soon begin a collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory that will pool computational and funding resources that will take this kind of asteroid mitigation exploration to the next level, assessing a range of potential threats. For now, those killer asteroids live solely in the simulations running on LANL’s supercomputers. But that might not always be the case.