Find stats & maps of extrasolar planet discoveries here:
http://www.ikg.rt.bw.schule.de/virkla/names/schuels/simon/swxtrsol.htm
20 April 2008
Solar System's 'look-alike' found (hopefully the first of many)
From: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7333155.stm
Astronomers have discovered a planetary system orbiting a distant star which looks much like our own. They found two planets that were close matches for Jupiter and Saturn orbiting a star about half the size of our Sun.
"It looks like this may have formed in a similar way to our Solar System. And if this is the case, it looks like [our] Solar System cannot be unique in the Universe. There should be other similar systems out there which could host terrestrial planets."
Only a Billion Years left to make our mark!
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From: http://www1.uea.ac.uk/cm/home/services/units/mac/comm/media/press/2008/apr/homepagenews/Is%2Bthere%2Banybody%2Bout%2Bthere%253F
Is there anybody out there? Probably not, according to a scientist from the University of East Anglia. A mathematical model produced by Prof Andrew Watson suggests that the odds of finding new life on other Earth-like planets are low, given the time it has taken for beings such as humans to evolve and the remaining life span of Earth.
According to Prof Watson a limit to evolution is the habitability of Earth, and any other Earth-like planets, which will end as the sun brightens. Solar models predict that the brightness of the sun is increasing, while temperature models suggest that because of this the future life span of Earth will be ‘only’ about another billion years, a short time compared to the four billion years since life first appeared on the planet.
His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests an upper limit for the probability of each step occurring is 10 per cent or less, so the chances of intelligent life emerging is low – less than 0.01 per cent over four billion years.
Is there anybody out there? Probably not, according to a scientist from the University of East Anglia. A mathematical model produced by Prof Andrew Watson suggests that the odds of finding new life on other Earth-like planets are low, given the time it has taken for beings such as humans to evolve and the remaining life span of Earth.
According to Prof Watson a limit to evolution is the habitability of Earth, and any other Earth-like planets, which will end as the sun brightens. Solar models predict that the brightness of the sun is increasing, while temperature models suggest that because of this the future life span of Earth will be ‘only’ about another billion years, a short time compared to the four billion years since life first appeared on the planet.
His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests an upper limit for the probability of each step occurring is 10 per cent or less, so the chances of intelligent life emerging is low – less than 0.01 per cent over four billion years.
16 April 2008
More threats to (complacent) life
From: http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2008/409/1
ScienceNOW Daily News April 9, 2008
The relatively quiet black hole atthe center of our Milky Way galaxycould one day reignite, spewingforth so much radiation that the skywould never darken. That grimscenario has become more likelybased on a new survey by Liverpool John Moores University astronomers. They used data from the SloanDigital Sky Survey to surveyspectral lines...It's not understood what is causing the black holes to become newly active, because in most cases there is no evidence of collisions or mergers. The answers have more than scientific relevance. The Milky Way's central black hole is currently quiet, but if for some reason it roared to life again, it could spew out deadly gamma rays and x-rays, possibly in our direction.
ScienceNOW Daily News April 9, 2008
The relatively quiet black hole atthe center of our Milky Way galaxycould one day reignite, spewingforth so much radiation that the skywould never darken. That grimscenario has become more likelybased on a new survey by Liverpool John Moores University astronomers. They used data from the SloanDigital Sky Survey to surveyspectral lines...It's not understood what is causing the black holes to become newly active, because in most cases there is no evidence of collisions or mergers. The answers have more than scientific relevance. The Milky Way's central black hole is currently quiet, but if for some reason it roared to life again, it could spew out deadly gamma rays and x-rays, possibly in our direction.
30 March 2008
NSS Posts Dedicated Space Solar Power Issue!
At last! A full dedicated issue to one of the two most important space goals of our generation (the other being Planetary Defense against Comets and Asteroids). Way to go NSS!
19 March 2008
Ex-astronaut pushes for international asteroid impact policy.
On the front page of its Marketplace section, the Wall Street Journal reports, "Ex-astronaut Rusty Schweickart wants to save the world from an incoming asteroid -- the multimegaton variety blamed for killing the dinosaurs -- and he thinks that the only sure-fire way to keep them away is by using, of all things, diplomacy." Schweickart maintains that "[t]he hard part of asteroids involves finding a way to reach a global agreement on how the planet would respond should an asteroid head our way." To that end, he hopes to meet with secretary-general of the United Nations this fall. Schweickart explains that certain factors, such as increased risks for certain countries when changing an asteroid's trajectory away from Earth, could lead to a badly-timed crisis, and that "the only fair way to proceed is to have a decision-making formula drawn up well in advance, thus unaffected by the political heat of an actual crisis." He adds that it is also important "to overcome global suspicion that a unilateral American anti-asteroid effort would be a ruse to militarize space."
17 March 2008
Delta V
Nice Delta-V Chart for interplanetary Missions:
http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3o.html
And a Delta-V Calculator: http://www.strout.net/info/science/delta-v/intro.html
http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3o.html
And a Delta-V Calculator: http://www.strout.net/info/science/delta-v/intro.html
12 March 2008
ProSpace "MarchStorm" Storms Hill
This year's March Storm, has chosen Commercial Access to Space, Space-Based Solar Power, and Planetary Defense for its key topics. It is asking to expand COTS, sign a letter of support for SBSP, requesting the first NSSO recommendation be acted upon, and assign the National Science and Technology Council the task of sorting out organizational responsibilities for Planetary Defense.
http://www.prospace.org/?q=node/8 Pro-Space was a spin-off activity of the Space Frontier Foundation (SFF) http://www.space-frontier.org/ which is one of the founding organizations of SSAFE, and the original host of the NSSO study blog http://spacesolarpower.wordpress.com/ and its own Space Solar Project: http://www.space-frontier.org/Projects/spacesolarpower/
11 March 2008
Black holes could bump asteroids our way
From: http://space.newscientist.com/article/mg19726465.000-black-holes-could-bump-asteroids-our-way.html
Some physicists think these little black holes, invisible remnants of the early universe, could be a candidate for the dark matter making up much of the universe's mass. Alexander Shatskiy of the Lebedev Institute in Moscow, Russia, points out that if all dark matter, is black holes they would likely pass through the asteroid belts in our galactic backyard. Since a metre-sized primordial black hole can have the mass of the Earth, it would need only to pass near an asteroid to knock it out of a safe orbit and towards our planet, he says
Some physicists think these little black holes, invisible remnants of the early universe, could be a candidate for the dark matter making up much of the universe's mass. Alexander Shatskiy of the Lebedev Institute in Moscow, Russia, points out that if all dark matter, is black holes they would likely pass through the asteroid belts in our galactic backyard. Since a metre-sized primordial black hole can have the mass of the Earth, it would need only to pass near an asteroid to knock it out of a safe orbit and towards our planet, he says
10 March 2008
A New View of the Solar System
From: http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/nation/03/09/0309solarsystem.html
First, until recently, people thought that there were two parts to the solar system: four small, rocky inner planets — Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars — and four gas giant outer planets — Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus..."That was the old view,"...Under the new definition, the International Astronomical Union has officially recognized 11 planets: eight traditional ones plus three "dwarf planets." The dwarfs are Pluto; Ceres, which was thought to be an asteroid between Mars and Jupiter; and Eris, an object that's slightly larger than Pluto and farther from the sun. At least 40 more dwarf planets have been found even farther out and are awaiting official recognition. They bear names such as Quaoar, Sedna, Orcus, Varuna and Ixion. Dozens of others are known only by code numbers.
Stern said the solar system now was thought to be composed of three zones instead of two.
The four rocky planets make up the inner zone. The gas giants form a "middle solar system." Beyond them lies an enormous third zone composed of the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud, both named for the astronomers who predicted their existence.
"This third class of planets vastly outnumbers the terrestrial planets and gas giants," Stern said.
The Kuiper Belt, which was discovered in the 1990s, is a ring of dwarf planets, including Pluto, and smaller icy objects that range from 3 billion to 5 billion miles beyond the sun.
More than 1,000 Kuiper Belt objects have been detected, and astronomers say there might be 50,000 to 100,000 more. Most are small, but some rival Pluto in size. Some have atmospheres and moons of their own, and some may have warm, wet interiors.
Far outside the Kuiper Belt looms the Oort Cloud, which Stern calls "the solar system's attic." The cloud is a gigantic sphere with an outer edge almost 5 trillion miles from the sun and is nearly a quarter of the way to the next nearest star, Proxima Centauri.
"If the Oort Cloud were the diameter of a football stadium, the inner solar system would be the size of a washer one-eighth of an inch in diameter," said David Aguilar, a spokesman for the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass.
The Oort Cloud is thought to contain at least 1,000 planetary bodies, some as large as Earth or larger, and as many as a trillion comets. Periodically, a passing star knocks an Oort comet loose and sends it diving toward the sun.
A second upheaval in planetary science is the realization that most members of the solar system weren't born where they are now. Instead, gravitational forces forced them to migrate from their birthplaces to their present homes.
"This is a true revolution," Stern said.
"The planets didn't necessarily form where we see them today," said Douglas Lin, an astronomer at the University of California-Santa Cruz. "They move all over the place."
For example, the giant planets Neptune and Uranus formed where Saturn now lives and drifted outward to their present orbits.
The third revolution in planetary science is the realization that making planets is a common process in the universe. In the past dozen years, 276 planets — some of them forming miniature solar systems — have been detected orbiting other stars. One such system has at least five planets. Astronomers discover an average of 25 planets each year.
NASA will launch a new spaceship, named Kepler, next year hoping to find hundreds more of such faraway planets.
First, until recently, people thought that there were two parts to the solar system: four small, rocky inner planets — Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars — and four gas giant outer planets — Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus..."That was the old view,"...Under the new definition, the International Astronomical Union has officially recognized 11 planets: eight traditional ones plus three "dwarf planets." The dwarfs are Pluto; Ceres, which was thought to be an asteroid between Mars and Jupiter; and Eris, an object that's slightly larger than Pluto and farther from the sun. At least 40 more dwarf planets have been found even farther out and are awaiting official recognition. They bear names such as Quaoar, Sedna, Orcus, Varuna and Ixion. Dozens of others are known only by code numbers.
Stern said the solar system now was thought to be composed of three zones instead of two.
The four rocky planets make up the inner zone. The gas giants form a "middle solar system." Beyond them lies an enormous third zone composed of the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud, both named for the astronomers who predicted their existence.
"This third class of planets vastly outnumbers the terrestrial planets and gas giants," Stern said.
The Kuiper Belt, which was discovered in the 1990s, is a ring of dwarf planets, including Pluto, and smaller icy objects that range from 3 billion to 5 billion miles beyond the sun.
More than 1,000 Kuiper Belt objects have been detected, and astronomers say there might be 50,000 to 100,000 more. Most are small, but some rival Pluto in size. Some have atmospheres and moons of their own, and some may have warm, wet interiors.
Far outside the Kuiper Belt looms the Oort Cloud, which Stern calls "the solar system's attic." The cloud is a gigantic sphere with an outer edge almost 5 trillion miles from the sun and is nearly a quarter of the way to the next nearest star, Proxima Centauri.
"If the Oort Cloud were the diameter of a football stadium, the inner solar system would be the size of a washer one-eighth of an inch in diameter," said David Aguilar, a spokesman for the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass.
The Oort Cloud is thought to contain at least 1,000 planetary bodies, some as large as Earth or larger, and as many as a trillion comets. Periodically, a passing star knocks an Oort comet loose and sends it diving toward the sun.
A second upheaval in planetary science is the realization that most members of the solar system weren't born where they are now. Instead, gravitational forces forced them to migrate from their birthplaces to their present homes.
"This is a true revolution," Stern said.
"The planets didn't necessarily form where we see them today," said Douglas Lin, an astronomer at the University of California-Santa Cruz. "They move all over the place."
For example, the giant planets Neptune and Uranus formed where Saturn now lives and drifted outward to their present orbits.
The third revolution in planetary science is the realization that making planets is a common process in the universe. In the past dozen years, 276 planets — some of them forming miniature solar systems — have been detected orbiting other stars. One such system has at least five planets. Astronomers discover an average of 25 planets each year.
NASA will launch a new spaceship, named Kepler, next year hoping to find hundreds more of such faraway planets.
05 March 2008
Binary 'deathstar' has Earth in its sights
From: http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/node/1878
SYDNEY: A spectacular, rotating binary star system is a ticking time bomb, ready to throw out a searing beam of high-energy gamma rays – and Earth may be right in the line of fire..."When it finally explodes as a supernova, it could emit an intense beam of gamma rays coming our way", said Peter Tuthill, lead researcher of the team that report their findings in the current Astrophysical Journal...At a distance of 8,000 light-years from Earth, the pair of stars are a short hop away in galactic terms, and just one quarter of the way to the centre of our Milky Way galaxy....A 2005 study showed that a gamma-ray burst originating within 6,500 light-years of Earth could be enough to strip away the ozone layer and cause a mass extinction. Researchers led by Adrian Melott at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, U.S., suggest that such an event may have been responsible for a mass extinction 443 million years ago, in the late Ordovician period, which wiped out 60 per cent of life and cooled the planet.
SYDNEY: A spectacular, rotating binary star system is a ticking time bomb, ready to throw out a searing beam of high-energy gamma rays – and Earth may be right in the line of fire..."When it finally explodes as a supernova, it could emit an intense beam of gamma rays coming our way", said Peter Tuthill, lead researcher of the team that report their findings in the current Astrophysical Journal...At a distance of 8,000 light-years from Earth, the pair of stars are a short hop away in galactic terms, and just one quarter of the way to the centre of our Milky Way galaxy....A 2005 study showed that a gamma-ray burst originating within 6,500 light-years of Earth could be enough to strip away the ozone layer and cause a mass extinction. Researchers led by Adrian Melott at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, U.S., suggest that such an event may have been responsible for a mass extinction 443 million years ago, in the late Ordovician period, which wiped out 60 per cent of life and cooled the planet.
The Next Great White Fleet
http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&issn=1477-7622&volume=6&issue=1&spage=50&uno_jumptype=alert&uno_alerttype=author,email
The author argues for using the US Air Force as a catalyst for positive change in space to advance and maintain the international system, and discusses Space Solar Power, Planetary Defense, and debris de-orbit.
The author argues for using the US Air Force as a catalyst for positive change in space to advance and maintain the international system, and discusses Space Solar Power, Planetary Defense, and debris de-orbit.
27 February 2008
ESA starts SSPS Wiki, to have workshop 29 Feb 2008
http://atlas.estec.esa.int/SPS/index.php/Main_Page
The rising interest in renewable energy solutions, the public debate on global warming and what is called "peak oil", the increasingly accepted need for sustainable energy systems, a recent white paper on SPS from URSI, the successful Furoshiki experiment as well as the attention for solar power from space created by the recent report initiated by an office within the US DoD makes this the right time to initiate the second phase of the SPS programme plan.
Therefore, we are seeking input, comments and criticism on the scope and content of the second phase from you. We have set up this collaborative website/discussion forum (wiki) for this purpose, and will organise a dedicated meeting/workshop of the SPS network at ESTEC on February 29, 2008.
Also, check out this excellent presentation on Space Solar from the Lift conference by Guy Pignolet:
http://www.liftconference.com/space-solar-power
Here also is the link for Marty Hoffert presenting at Google:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9YD9-_WTjk
And an outstanding video from NASA featuring John Mankins:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6849120419741037023&hl=en
The rising interest in renewable energy solutions, the public debate on global warming and what is called "peak oil", the increasingly accepted need for sustainable energy systems, a recent white paper on SPS from URSI, the successful Furoshiki experiment as well as the attention for solar power from space created by the recent report initiated by an office within the US DoD makes this the right time to initiate the second phase of the SPS programme plan.
Therefore, we are seeking input, comments and criticism on the scope and content of the second phase from you. We have set up this collaborative website/discussion forum (wiki) for this purpose, and will organise a dedicated meeting/workshop of the SPS network at ESTEC on February 29, 2008.
Also, check out this excellent presentation on Space Solar from the Lift conference by Guy Pignolet:
http://www.liftconference.com/space-solar-power
Here also is the link for Marty Hoffert presenting at Google:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9YD9-_WTjk
And an outstanding video from NASA featuring John Mankins:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6849120419741037023&hl=en
JAXA Testing Power Beaming
http://www.pinktentacle.com/2008/02/jaxa-testing-space-solar-power-system/
On February 20, JAXA will take a step closer to the goal when they begin testing a microwave power transmission system designed to beam the power from the satellites to Earth. In a series of experiments to be conducted at the Taiki Multi-Purpose Aerospace Park in Hokkaido, the researchers will use a 2.4-meter-diameter transmission antenna to send a microwave beam over 50 meters to a rectenna (rectifying antenna) that converts the microwave energy into electricity and powers a household heater. The researchers expect these initial tests to provide valuable engineering data that will pave the way for JAXA to build larger, more powerful systems.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.iat.jaxa.jp/res/amrc/ssps/03.html&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=3&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3DSSPS%2Bsite:%2Bjaxa%26hl%3Den%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox%26rlz%3D1I7TSHA%26pwst%3D1
Planetary Society awards $25,000 prize
From: http://space.newscientist.com/article/dn13381-asteroidtracking-proposal-wins-25000-prize.html
the non-profit Planetary Society, based in Pasadena, California, US, has announced the winner of a competition to design a mission to track Apophis and determine whether it poses a threat to Earth. The Planetary Society received 37 mission proposals from 20 countries. The winner was a proposal by SpaceWorks Engineering Inc., of Atlanta, Georgia, US. Dubbed "Foresight", the mission would put a small spacecraft in orbit around Apophis, where it would send pictures and data about the asteroid back to Earth. Its designers say if they got funding, they could launch the mission as early as 2012 and arrive at the asteroid in 2013.
the non-profit Planetary Society, based in Pasadena, California, US, has announced the winner of a competition to design a mission to track Apophis and determine whether it poses a threat to Earth. The Planetary Society received 37 mission proposals from 20 countries. The winner was a proposal by SpaceWorks Engineering Inc., of Atlanta, Georgia, US. Dubbed "Foresight", the mission would put a small spacecraft in orbit around Apophis, where it would send pictures and data about the asteroid back to Earth. Its designers say if they got funding, they could launch the mission as early as 2012 and arrive at the asteroid in 2013.
HR 4917 Proposed NEO Defense Bill
A proposed bill would further attempt to embroil NASA in a mission it does not want, while ignoring the DOD: http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c110:H.R.4917:
directed from: http://gaiashield.com/NEOPrep/
Submitted by Rep Rohrabacher, and rumored to have been written or prompted by Rusty Schweikert. Sections of particular interest:
(1) Asteroid and comet collisions rank as one of the most costly natural disasters that can occur.
(2) According to the October 2007 report to Congress by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (in this Act referred to as `NASA'), 140-meter-in-diameter asteroid collision will generate the equivalent power of a 100 megaton TNT explosion.
(3) There are approximately 100,000 near-Earth objects 140 meters wide or larger.
(4) The time needed to eliminate or mitigate the threat of a collision of a potentially hazardous near-Earth object with Earth is measured in decades.
(5) Unlike earthquakes and hurricanes, asteroids and comets can provide adequate collision information, enabling the United States to include both asteroid- and comet-collision disaster recovery and disaster avoidance in its public-safety structure.
(6) Basic information is needed for technical and policy decisionmaking for the United States to create a comprehensive program in order to be ready to eliminate and mitigate the serious and credible threats to humankind posed by potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroids and comets.
(9) The public safety of the United States and the planet requires the competence and expertise found in NASA to prepare and to validate the potentially hazardous near-Earth object deflection situation and decisionmaking analysis, as well as to select systems and procedures, to prepare the United States for readiness to avoid or to mitigate collisions with potentially hazardous near-Earth objects.
(a) Establishment- The Administrator shall establish the Office of Potentially Hazardous Near-Earth Object Preparedness (in this Act referred to as `Office'). The purpose of the Office shall be to prepare the United States for readiness to avoid and to mitigate collisions with potentially hazardous near-Earth objects in collaboration with other Agencies through the identification of situation- and decision-analysis factors and selection of procedures and systems.
directed from: http://gaiashield.com/NEOPrep/
Submitted by Rep Rohrabacher, and rumored to have been written or prompted by Rusty Schweikert. Sections of particular interest:
(1) Asteroid and comet collisions rank as one of the most costly natural disasters that can occur.
(2) According to the October 2007 report to Congress by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (in this Act referred to as `NASA'), 140-meter-in-diameter asteroid collision will generate the equivalent power of a 100 megaton TNT explosion.
(3) There are approximately 100,000 near-Earth objects 140 meters wide or larger.
(4) The time needed to eliminate or mitigate the threat of a collision of a potentially hazardous near-Earth object with Earth is measured in decades.
(5) Unlike earthquakes and hurricanes, asteroids and comets can provide adequate collision information, enabling the United States to include both asteroid- and comet-collision disaster recovery and disaster avoidance in its public-safety structure.
(6) Basic information is needed for technical and policy decisionmaking for the United States to create a comprehensive program in order to be ready to eliminate and mitigate the serious and credible threats to humankind posed by potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroids and comets.
(9) The public safety of the United States and the planet requires the competence and expertise found in NASA to prepare and to validate the potentially hazardous near-Earth object deflection situation and decisionmaking analysis, as well as to select systems and procedures, to prepare the United States for readiness to avoid or to mitigate collisions with potentially hazardous near-Earth objects.
(a) Establishment- The Administrator shall establish the Office of Potentially Hazardous Near-Earth Object Preparedness (in this Act referred to as `Office'). The purpose of the Office shall be to prepare the United States for readiness to avoid and to mitigate collisions with potentially hazardous near-Earth objects in collaboration with other Agencies through the identification of situation- and decision-analysis factors and selection of procedures and systems.
Only 7.6 Billion Years to get our act together and one more use for an asteroid
Scientists Predict When World Will End http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,332429,00.html
Scientists have nailed down how and when the Earth will cease to exist.The sun will slowly expand into a red giant, pushing the Earth farther out into space, but not far enough.Our home planet will be snagged by the sun's outer atmosphere, gradually plunging to its doom inside the fiery stellar furnace."The drag caused by this low-density gas is enough to cause the Earth to drift inwards, and finally to be captured and vaporized by the sun," explains astronomer Robert Smith of the University of Sussex in southern England.Previous projections had all figured that the Earth would avoid falling into the sun, even during our star's red-giant phase.The good news: This won't happen for another 7.6 billion years.The bad news: Life on Earth will end long before then.In fact, we've only got a billion years left before the slowly expanding sun boils off the oceans and reduces our planet to an uninhabitable cinder, says Smith.That may sound like a long time, but in fact life on Earth's been around a lot longer than that - a total of 3.7 billion years, according to the latest estimates.For those first three billion years, true, we were nothing but pond scum. Still, the new figures indicate the long story of life on our fair blue-green planet may be entering its last act.Is there any way our future descendants can save themselves? Why, yes, explains Smith.He cites a recent study emanating from the University of California, Santa Cruz. It proposes taming an asteroid to swing by the Earth every few thousand years, slowly nudging the Earth into higher solar orbit, enough to outpace the sun's own outward growth."This sounds like science fiction," says Smith. "But it seems that the energy requirements are just about possible and the technology could be developed over the next few centuries."
Scientists have nailed down how and when the Earth will cease to exist.The sun will slowly expand into a red giant, pushing the Earth farther out into space, but not far enough.Our home planet will be snagged by the sun's outer atmosphere, gradually plunging to its doom inside the fiery stellar furnace."The drag caused by this low-density gas is enough to cause the Earth to drift inwards, and finally to be captured and vaporized by the sun," explains astronomer Robert Smith of the University of Sussex in southern England.Previous projections had all figured that the Earth would avoid falling into the sun, even during our star's red-giant phase.The good news: This won't happen for another 7.6 billion years.The bad news: Life on Earth will end long before then.In fact, we've only got a billion years left before the slowly expanding sun boils off the oceans and reduces our planet to an uninhabitable cinder, says Smith.That may sound like a long time, but in fact life on Earth's been around a lot longer than that - a total of 3.7 billion years, according to the latest estimates.For those first three billion years, true, we were nothing but pond scum. Still, the new figures indicate the long story of life on our fair blue-green planet may be entering its last act.Is there any way our future descendants can save themselves? Why, yes, explains Smith.He cites a recent study emanating from the University of California, Santa Cruz. It proposes taming an asteroid to swing by the Earth every few thousand years, slowly nudging the Earth into higher solar orbit, enough to outpace the sun's own outward growth."This sounds like science fiction," says Smith. "But it seems that the energy requirements are just about possible and the technology could be developed over the next few centuries."
UN-SPIDER
http://www.unis.unvienna.org/unis/pressrels/2008/unisos365.html
UN Space
The newly established space-system-based disaster management program(UN-SPIDER) was in the focus of the 45 session of COPUOS in Vienna,11-20 Feb. Possible dangers from near-Earth objects, space debrismitigation, and a safety framework for nuclear power sources in outerspace were also key agenda items.thSpace-System-Based Disaster Management Support. The Subcommittee heardreport on the implementation of the UN-SPIDER program for the period2008-2009 as well as other initiatives and long-term perspectives ofvarious Member States and space agencies in the area of disastermanagement. The new UN-SPIDER program which is implemented by the UNOffice for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), opened its first office inBonn, Germany, Oct 07, and will be opening an office in Beijing as wellas a liaison office in Geneva in 2008.Near-Earth objects. The Subcommittee endorsed the new multi-year workplan 2009-2011, under which the Working Group on NEO will reviewpolicies and procedures on the NEO threat at the international level inorder to draft an agreement on international procedures by 2012. Withinthe framework of the International Year of Astronomy 2009, the WorkingGroup will also try to raise awareness of the NEO threat. TheSubcommittee continues to consider NEOs due to their scientific value asremnant debris from the inner solar system formation processes, theirrichness in various natural resources as well as their potential dangerof collision with the Earth.
UN Space
The newly established space-system-based disaster management program(UN-SPIDER) was in the focus of the 45 session of COPUOS in Vienna,11-20 Feb. Possible dangers from near-Earth objects, space debrismitigation, and a safety framework for nuclear power sources in outerspace were also key agenda items.thSpace-System-Based Disaster Management Support. The Subcommittee heardreport on the implementation of the UN-SPIDER program for the period2008-2009 as well as other initiatives and long-term perspectives ofvarious Member States and space agencies in the area of disastermanagement. The new UN-SPIDER program which is implemented by the UNOffice for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), opened its first office inBonn, Germany, Oct 07, and will be opening an office in Beijing as wellas a liaison office in Geneva in 2008.Near-Earth objects. The Subcommittee endorsed the new multi-year workplan 2009-2011, under which the Working Group on NEO will reviewpolicies and procedures on the NEO threat at the international level inorder to draft an agreement on international procedures by 2012. Withinthe framework of the International Year of Astronomy 2009, the WorkingGroup will also try to raise awareness of the NEO threat. TheSubcommittee continues to consider NEOs due to their scientific value asremnant debris from the inner solar system formation processes, theirrichness in various natural resources as well as their potential dangerof collision with the Earth.
The NEO threats are smaller and more numerous!
Previously, Tunguska was thought to have been at least 50 meters...
- But the size of the Tunguska object was perhaps 30-40 meters in diameter - or loosely the size of the White House - and the process to track most of those will take longer, he said.
- "In the process of finding the bigger objects, you find some of the smaller ones," Schweikart said. "But there are perhaps 400,000 objects that are 45 meters in diameter out there, and we've found less than 1 percent of them so far."
- Prior estimates suggested that Tunguska-like events happened every 1,000 years or so. New estimates put that closer to the 300-400 year range, Boslough said.
- "The smaller ones at most could hit perhaps every 100 years or so," Boslough said. "And the last one was 99.5 years ago, but any estimates are based on a lot of uncertainty."
http://www.abqtrib.com/news/2007/dec/22/killer-asteroids-more-common-was-thought-sandia-sc/ - See animations here:
http://www.sandia.gov/news/resources/releases/2007/asteroid.html
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/12/small-asteroids.html
26 January 2008
Impact Crater Chart
Internation Action on NEOS?
In addition, last year the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) established an Action Team on NEOs within its Scientific and Technical Subcommittee to encourage more international work on this issue. The Action Team is focused on identifying gaps in efforts and coordination within the international community, as well as recommending improvements.
Assisting in UN Legal Framework for International NEO Cooperation
SGAC is a member of Action Team 14 of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS). ASE will introduce a draft protocol in 2009 which will be the output of four workshops that conclude in late 2008. SGAC can help by taking this output to inform the COPUOS member states about its content and to answer any questions that might arise to ensure that by its introduction in 2009 the member states are informed and vote in favour of the draft protocol. Even if the final version of the draft protocol will be finished a few months from now, we can already start our preparations. Please go to the forum and see our NEO resource site for more information.
SGAC is a member of Action Team 14 of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS). ASE will introduce a draft protocol in 2009 which will be the output of four workshops that conclude in late 2008. SGAC can help by taking this output to inform the COPUOS member states about its content and to answer any questions that might arise to ensure that by its introduction in 2009 the member states are informed and vote in favour of the draft protocol. Even if the final version of the draft protocol will be finished a few months from now, we can already start our preparations. Please go to the forum and see our NEO resource site for more information.
The workshops will culminate in the presentation of a draft United Nations Protocol on NEO Deflection to the UN’s Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) in the spring of 2009. http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=20596
"Duty is doing what needs to be done, when it needs to be done, without being told it needs to be done."
Lets hope that by then the DoD has formulated a coherent position. If not, one can only have contempt for such a lack of vision, ambition, failure of imagination, and negligence of what is clearly a wider responsibility. "20 January 2008
The Magic of Maps to Orient Us to the Heavens
Great animation of Extra-Solar Planets!
http://www.amnh.org/sciencebulletins/astro/v/esp.20040401/popup.php
http://www.amnh.org/sciencebulletins/astro/v/esp.20040401/popup.php
GoogleSky (Google Earth Sky Explorer) has some amazing overlays:
Asteroid and meteor craters: http://members.cox.net/tpolakis/astro/Craters___Impact_Sites.kmz
http://www.thinklemon.com/ge/seis_db.20060131.kmz
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/placemarks/279959-METEORITSIMPACTDATABASE.kmz
Asteroid and meteor craters: http://members.cox.net/tpolakis/astro/Craters___Impact_Sites.kmz
http://www.thinklemon.com/ge/seis_db.20060131.kmz
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/placemarks/279959-METEORITSIMPACTDATABASE.kmz
http://www.gearthhacks.com/forums/downloads.php?do=file&act=down&id=13362
Extrasolar Planets: http://www.shporer.com/planets/planets.kmz.php
Illustrated Constellations: http://www.k-ita.de/~sl/sky/Constellations.kml
Extrasolar Planets: http://www.shporer.com/planets/planets.kmz.php
Illustrated Constellations: http://www.k-ita.de/~sl/sky/Constellations.kml
[By the way, Google Earth has a cool new flight simulator function. Hit Control-Alt-A. (must be in caps. See: http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/08/31/google-earths-easter-egg-a-flight-simulator/ )
A couple of things I have NOT found yet:
- An overlay for Habstars
- An overlay of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
- An overlay for most promising SETI@Home candidtates, such as this old one from 2003
from: http://www.planetary.org/programs/projects/innovative_technologies/setiathome/stellar_4.html
- An overlay for Habstars
- An overlay of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
- An overlay for most promising SETI@Home candidtates, such as this old one from 2003
from: http://www.planetary.org/programs/projects/innovative_technologies/setiathome/stellar_4.html
More reason to worry
Organizations interested in protecting Earth:
http://lifeboat.com/ex/asteroid.shield
Future Asteroid Interception Research allows you to donate via PayPal to pay for NEO interception work: http://www.fair-society.org/index.htm
http://gaiashield.com/myths.html contains a nice encapsulated summary answering many objections. Of particular interest is this:
MYTH: Asteroids less than 50 meters diameter will burn up harmlessly in Earth's atmosphere.
Most will burn up in our atmosphere and not actually strike the planet but that does not mean they will not have an impact. On January 18, 2000 in Canada's Yukon Territory a meteor (tiny asteroid) the size of a bowling ball exploded at an altitude of 25 km with a force of 3 kilotons. In 'burning up' in Earth's atmosphere it generated an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) similar to that of a nuclear bomb, knocking out the power over one third of the Territory. In 1908 the 50 meter NEO Tunguska Event generated a 10 megaton explosion 6 km above the Earth's surface (the altitude prescribed for military use of nuclear weapons to achieve maximum effect) flattening 2,000 square km of Siberian forest and incinerating more than twice that. However, no EMP was reported... It is estimated that a 1 megaton nuclear explosion (10% of Tunguska) 250 miles over Omaha would emit an EMP strong enough to collapse the economy and society of the United States from coast to coast at the speed of light.
A new study released last month revised the frequency of Tunguska size events upward by a factor of 2-3 to once every few hundred years.
http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=179
Other smaller, but not insignificant significant impact events occured in the Amazon in 1930 and Guyana in 1935, and Siberia impact in 1947. Consider how much of the world is untraveled oceans--we maybe get hit more often and not even know it.
A comprehensive Chronology of impacts: http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/I5.htm
And impact database: http://www.unb.ca/passc/ImpactDatabase/index.html
A NEO impact 13,000 years ago may have wiped out the Clovis Culture and many of the large mammals in North America:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-09/nau-rts092407.php
The evidence for multiple detonations comes from a four-inch-thick “black mat” of carbon-rich material that appears as far north as Canada, Greenland and Europe to as far south as the Channel Islands off the coast of California and eastward to the Carolinas... Evidence of mammoths and other megafauna and early human hunters, known as the Clovis culture, are found beneath the black mat but are missing entirely within or above it. This led the research team to conclude an extraterrestrial impact wiped out many of the inhabitants of the Late Pleistocene. ..The black mat was formed by ponding of water and algal blooms and contains carbon, soot and glassy carbon—remnants of burned materials. Some of these remnants are extraterrestrial in nature. For example, the research team has identified fullerenes, spherical carbon cages resembling a soccer ball, which are formed in shock events outside the Earth’s atmosphere. Trapped inside the fullerenes is a concentration of helium 3 that is many times greater than what is found in the Earth’s atmosphere. The black mat also has turned up nanodiamonds, which are formed in the interstellar medium outside the solar system, by or by a high-explosive detonation...The magnitude of the detonations would have been huge. “A hydrogen bomb is the equivalent of about 100 to 1,000 megatons,” Bunch said. “The detonations we’re talking about would be about 10 million megatons. That’s larger than the simultaneous detonation of all the world’s nuclear bombs past and present.”..Bunch says impact airbursts may be more common than previously thought with possibly two or three such events having occurred over the last 100,000 years. And more are sure to follow.
http://lifeboat.com/ex/asteroid.shield
Future Asteroid Interception Research allows you to donate via PayPal to pay for NEO interception work: http://www.fair-society.org/index.htm
http://gaiashield.com/myths.html contains a nice encapsulated summary answering many objections. Of particular interest is this:
MYTH: Asteroids less than 50 meters diameter will burn up harmlessly in Earth's atmosphere.
Most will burn up in our atmosphere and not actually strike the planet but that does not mean they will not have an impact. On January 18, 2000 in Canada's Yukon Territory a meteor (tiny asteroid) the size of a bowling ball exploded at an altitude of 25 km with a force of 3 kilotons. In 'burning up' in Earth's atmosphere it generated an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) similar to that of a nuclear bomb, knocking out the power over one third of the Territory. In 1908 the 50 meter NEO Tunguska Event generated a 10 megaton explosion 6 km above the Earth's surface (the altitude prescribed for military use of nuclear weapons to achieve maximum effect) flattening 2,000 square km of Siberian forest and incinerating more than twice that. However, no EMP was reported... It is estimated that a 1 megaton nuclear explosion (10% of Tunguska) 250 miles over Omaha would emit an EMP strong enough to collapse the economy and society of the United States from coast to coast at the speed of light.
A new study released last month revised the frequency of Tunguska size events upward by a factor of 2-3 to once every few hundred years.
http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=179
Other smaller, but not insignificant significant impact events occured in the Amazon in 1930 and Guyana in 1935, and Siberia impact in 1947. Consider how much of the world is untraveled oceans--we maybe get hit more often and not even know it.
A comprehensive Chronology of impacts: http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/I5.htm
And impact database: http://www.unb.ca/passc/ImpactDatabase/index.html
A NEO impact 13,000 years ago may have wiped out the Clovis Culture and many of the large mammals in North America:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-09/nau-rts092407.php
The evidence for multiple detonations comes from a four-inch-thick “black mat” of carbon-rich material that appears as far north as Canada, Greenland and Europe to as far south as the Channel Islands off the coast of California and eastward to the Carolinas... Evidence of mammoths and other megafauna and early human hunters, known as the Clovis culture, are found beneath the black mat but are missing entirely within or above it. This led the research team to conclude an extraterrestrial impact wiped out many of the inhabitants of the Late Pleistocene. ..The black mat was formed by ponding of water and algal blooms and contains carbon, soot and glassy carbon—remnants of burned materials. Some of these remnants are extraterrestrial in nature. For example, the research team has identified fullerenes, spherical carbon cages resembling a soccer ball, which are formed in shock events outside the Earth’s atmosphere. Trapped inside the fullerenes is a concentration of helium 3 that is many times greater than what is found in the Earth’s atmosphere. The black mat also has turned up nanodiamonds, which are formed in the interstellar medium outside the solar system, by or by a high-explosive detonation...The magnitude of the detonations would have been huge. “A hydrogen bomb is the equivalent of about 100 to 1,000 megatons,” Bunch said. “The detonations we’re talking about would be about 10 million megatons. That’s larger than the simultaneous detonation of all the world’s nuclear bombs past and present.”..Bunch says impact airbursts may be more common than previously thought with possibly two or three such events having occurred over the last 100,000 years. And more are sure to follow.
06 January 2008
The Survival Imperative
Finished William E. Burrows' The Survival Imperative: Using Space to Protect Earthhttp://www.amazon.com/Survival-Imperative-Using-Space-Protect/dp/0765311143
Burrows joins (and hopefully grows a few more) ranks of thinkers who want to see fundamental restructuring of our space organizations and a refocus on what he calls an overarching Planetary Protection Program. Burrows book starts strong (with an outstanding scenario), and ends strong, but wanders a bit internally, and would have benefitted by some additional structuring.
Burrows provides a journalists balanced approach to he discussions of various differing perspectives, but essentially says that NASA lacks an overarching vision and clear program to an end goal, and that it should be refocused on Planetary Protection, by which the author has several meanings, the clearest of which is against potential impactors, but which also seems to encompass other catastrophes including human use of WMD (and the use of space surveillance to track & curtail), energy (he does make a passing nod to Space Solar Power Satellites--Bravo!), monitoring the climate and environment. While not as clearly laid out as I'd have liked, it seems that Burrows basically agrees with key thinkers that the only path for evolution is to "Spread out or die," and that we need to go to the Moon a back-up archive of our irreplaceable culture and information in the event of a global catastrophe, and eventually an autonomous Lunar colony. He advocates for a restructuring, consolidation, and increase in emphasis on Earth imaging and monitoring, and he seems to support the conclusions of those who provided a letter with clear recommendations to congress (below), and the 2004 Planetary Defense Conference. Here are some notable quotes from the book:
"The steadily increasing number of imagng satellites themselves and their common technology, both for civilian and military intelligence, has put the whole planet under continuous surveillance. That being the case, it is time for NASA, the NRO, and NOAA--the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which operates the weather satellites--to combine into a single entity.
"Planetary Defense must, in other words, become as normative as the military. No government would consider abandoning its armed forces. Protecting Earth, as its constituent nations are protected, should become permanently institutionalized and financed accordingly." (p.247)
"The core of the Planetary Protection Program is the lunar base, to be expanded into a growing colony, and to provide a home for the archive." (p.245)
"But the core of the mission, in its totality, would send humans and robots to space for mutually supportive operations specifically designed to protect the planet. Thatis to say, NASA, and its collective foreign counterparts, and other cooperating U.S. agencies should assume the role of Earth's guardians." (p.240)
"Planetary Defense must, in other words, become as normative as the military. No government would consider abandoning its armed forces. Protecting Earth, as its constituent nations are protected, should become permanently institutionalized and financed accordingly." (p.247)
"The core of the Planetary Protection Program is the lunar base, to be expanded into a growing colony, and to provide a home for the archive." (p.245)
"But the core of the mission, in its totality, would send humans and robots to space for mutually supportive operations specifically designed to protect the planet. Thatis to say, NASA, and its collective foreign counterparts, and other cooperating U.S. agencies should assume the role of Earth's guardians." (p.240)
He also has a few gems from some thinkers:
"but unless the human race spreads into space, I doubt it will survive the next thousand years."--Stephen Hawking
"Even a few pioneering groups, living independenty of Earth, would offer a safeguard against the worst possible disaster--the foreclosure of intelligent life's future through the extinction of all humankind."--Sir Martin Rees
"With appologies to Thoreau and the Nature Conservancy (of which I am a member), humankind must wage a perpetual war with Nature, chock full of measures and countermeasures, just to survive. Nature thinks nothing of snuffing several thousand people out of existence with earthquakes, tidal waves, and volcanic eruptions annually...Slowly but surely it is dawning on our collective consciousness that space travel isn't just 'really neat'...it isn't just very practical...Rather, we have begun to realize that human spaceflight is absolutely essentail to our ultimate survival."--Ray Erikson (p.179)
"Is there any wonder that the public has lost interest in human spaceflight?...What is interesting about drifing in circles forever?"--Buzz Aldrin (p. 191)
And of course, he gives a well deserved nod to THE motherload of space vision and inspiration, Gerald O'Neill's The High Frontier (available at: http://www.space-frontier.org/HighFrontier/ ), which I highly recommend for reading, and the Space Studies Institute, http://ssi.org/ which is returning to life with an upcoming conference this year.
He also cites Dr. Lewis several times, but does not mention his latest book, Mining the Sky (available here: http://www.amazon.com/Mining-Helix-Book-John-Lewis/dp/0201328194 ), which shows the upside of the technologies for planetary defense--the riches of the sky. Further excellent discussion can be found here: http://www.permanent.com/The book also contains the entire text of the (outstanding) Open Letter to the Congress, a part of which can be read here: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/neo_letter_030709.html unfortunately, it appears that the link, http://www.congressneoaction.org/ appears to be non-functional, which is a shame, since such a letter would be useful to send to key leaders in our space defense establishment as well, as they have the lattitude to take action.
And the 2004 Planetary Defense white paper: http://www.planetarydefense.info/resources/pdf/conference_white_paper.pdf (link the the 2007 is in an earlier listing)Of signifcance also, and previously unknown to me, was the final report of the Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace Industry, which in Chapter 3, available here ( http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/report/2002/05Chapter03.pdf ) said:
"Planetary Defense. Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) pose a potentially serious threat for humankind. Scientists are now certain that a major asteroid or comet was responsible for the mass extinction of the dinosaurs. The U.S. Air Force (USAF) is currently conducting concept exploration studies for a constellation of satellites designed to detect and track man-madesatellites in Earth’s orbit. The Commission believes that these studies should be broadened to include detection of asteroids. U.S. Strategic Command officials are also reviewing a concept for a clearinghouse that gathers and analyzes data on potential Earth impacts from asteroids. In addition, the National Security Space Architect is currently, as part of the Space Situational Awareness Architecture, integrating the use of space and ground-based surveillance systems. Given these actions, planetary defense should be assigned to DoD in cooperation with NASA. The Commission believes that the nation needs a joint civil and military initiative to develop a core space infrastructure that will address emerging national needs for military use and planetary defense."
The final paragraphs of the book are worth repeating as well: "The continuation of life transcends death, not only physically, but spiritually. The protection of Earth and th creatures on it, connecting the majestic and likely unique accomplishments that started and nurtured civilization, wit the unimaginably humanistic achievements of the distantly born is supremely enobling because it honors and dignifies the precious thing that is life. How unspeakably sad it would be if the cultural riches future generations could bring to the world of art, literature, science, politics, all manner of scholarship, and perhaps a philosophy that enables peace and mutual support to finally take hold were preempted with no hope of being realized. Using space to protect civilization, providing an environment in which it is able to collectively thrive and grow to its limitless potential, will transform humankind from its traditional role of the hapless victim of fate to one better able to control our destiny and fulfil our inhert, and perhaps unique, potential for greatness. Further, the unborn deserve to fulfill their potential for what is far less than great. Everyne who believes in the migration to space, for whatever reason, accepts that people will bring their baser instincts with them just as surel as they will bring the higher ones. There is no reason to suppose that evil, stupidity, and unenlightened self-interest will be left on the home planet. What transgresses the moraliy of any given moment is the sanctity of life itself and the overarching need to protect and enhance it. Being less than perfect, being tarnished, is infininately better than not being at all. Survival is therefore imperative. That is why the humans who inhabit this cradle of life in a vast, dark universe have ben given the means to protect it for themselves and for thos who will come after them."
Regarding the transformation from "hapless victim of fate..." These last points remind me to point out two additional discussions:
A favorite passage from George Bernard Shaw's Man and Superman, act III (find it here: http://www.bigeye.com/donjuan.htm ):
THE DEVIL None, my friend. You think, because you have a purpose, Nature must have one. You might as well expect it to have fingers and toes because you have them.
DON JUAN But I should not have them if they served no purpose. And I, my friend am as much a part of Nature as my own finger is a part of me. If my finger is the organ by which I grasp the sword and the mandoline, my brain is the organ by which Nature strives to understand itself. My dog's brain serves only my dog's purposes; but my own brain labors at a knowledge which does nothing for me personally but make my body bitter to me and my decay and death a calamity. Were I not possessed with a purpose beyond my own I had better be a ploughman than a philosopher; for the ploughman lives as long as the philosopher, eats more, sleeps better, and rejoices in the wife of his bosom with less misgiving. This is because the philosopher is in the grip of the Life Force. This Life Force says to him "I have done a thousand wonderful things unconsciously by merely willing to live and following the line of least resistance: now I want to know myself and my destination, and choose my path; so I have made a special brain - a philosopher's brain - to grasp this knowledge for me as the husbandman's hand grasps the plough for me. And this" says the Life Force to the philosopher "must thou strive to do for me until thou diest, when I will make another brain and another philosopher to carry on the work."
DON JUAN But I should not have them if they served no purpose. And I, my friend am as much a part of Nature as my own finger is a part of me. If my finger is the organ by which I grasp the sword and the mandoline, my brain is the organ by which Nature strives to understand itself. My dog's brain serves only my dog's purposes; but my own brain labors at a knowledge which does nothing for me personally but make my body bitter to me and my decay and death a calamity. Were I not possessed with a purpose beyond my own I had better be a ploughman than a philosopher; for the ploughman lives as long as the philosopher, eats more, sleeps better, and rejoices in the wife of his bosom with less misgiving. This is because the philosopher is in the grip of the Life Force. This Life Force says to him "I have done a thousand wonderful things unconsciously by merely willing to live and following the line of least resistance: now I want to know myself and my destination, and choose my path; so I have made a special brain - a philosopher's brain - to grasp this knowledge for me as the husbandman's hand grasps the plough for me. And this" says the Life Force to the philosopher "must thou strive to do for me until thou diest, when I will make another brain and another philosopher to carry on the work."
THE DEVIL What is the use of knowing?
DON JUAN Why, to be able to choose the line of greatest advantage instead of yielding in the direction of the least resistance. Does a ship sail to its destination no better than a log drifts nowhither? The philosopher is Nature's pilot. And there you have our difference: to be in hell is to drift: to be in heaven is to steer.
DON JUAN Why, to be able to choose the line of greatest advantage instead of yielding in the direction of the least resistance. Does a ship sail to its destination no better than a log drifts nowhither? The philosopher is Nature's pilot. And there you have our difference: to be in hell is to drift: to be in heaven is to steer.
Howard Bloom's outstanding essay, Screw Sustainability providing a ralleying call for expansive life:http://lifeboat.com/ex/screw.sustainability
Why screw sustainability? Because the word implies merely hanging in there, merely surviving, merely sustaining. It implies a penny-pinching earth, a miserly existence, a nature that punishes change, and a nature that prefers small tribes to large groups of human beings. This sort of attitude has traditionally led to ignorance and to self-inflicted poverty.
Why screw sustainability? Because the word implies merely hanging in there, merely surviving, merely sustaining. It implies a penny-pinching earth, a miserly existence, a nature that punishes change, and a nature that prefers small tribes to large groups of human beings. This sort of attitude has traditionally led to ignorance and to self-inflicted poverty.
Sustainability implies a worldview of a kindly and caring nature, a nature that's easily raped by technology, industry, capitalism, and modernism. It implies a nature that will automatically protect rainforests, whales, and endangered species if we greedy modern humans rein in our consumerist lusts. If we get rid of our SUVs and of our industrial factories, this worldview tells us that nature will go back to the greenery and the reliability of some mythic good old days. But that view of nature isn't true. Nature is not the motherly protector. Nature is just the opposite. She tosses us curves and challenges our creativity. The challenge to create is what Mother Nature and her favorite game-evolution-are really all about. Which means we need a major worldview change. Mother Nature does not build everlasting Edens for the eco-conscious. Mother Nature is the mother of catastrophe. She's tossed her children a major die-off every 26 million years or so, a total of 148 major die-offs that we've been able to count. She's shocked this planet with six far bigger mass extinctions, six enormous holocausts of species. Those die-offs haven't come from smokestack factories, consumerism, and the depredations of capitalism. They've come from the natural evolution of the earth that gave us life. And their message has been simple. Ride the waves of change or die. Mother Nature challenges our ability to surf the waves of change when she slings us through a 66-million-year-long orbit around the center of our galaxy, an orbit that takes us through interstellar gas clusters called local fluff, interstellar clusters that strip our planet of its protective heliosphere, interstellar clusters that bombard the earth with cosmic radiation and interstellar clusters that trigger giant climate change. Just one of those changes could wipe our civilization...and even the human race...away.
"Nature challenges our creativity with an outer atmosphere that gathers nearly 30 million kilograms of space dust a year. She challenges us by sending us through a cloud of interplanetary powder that doubles or even triples this tonnage of cosmic dust every 100,000 years. The darkness and cold this dust produces could make the old nightmare of a nuclear winter look like a sunny day in spring."
"First of all, Mother Nature's catastrophes and the challenges they've tossed us made us what we are today. We were born as one of the most helpless and pathetic species this planet has ever seen... Yet we made it through 20 Ice Ages. And we did it living on the most challenging place of all — the very edge of the glaciers that were freezing nearly everything in sight... How the hell did we manage it? By taking disaster as a challenge, then mastering it. By defying Mother Nature and flinging her capriciousness back in her face. We made new fangs and new claws out of stone. We flaked axes, choppers, blades, scrapers, spear tips, and much later, arrowheads. We made our own fur coats out of the skins of the beasts we hunted down. Our fingers were too weak to dig dens, so we built tents out of mammoth tusks and mammoth ribs then covered them with mammoth skins. We did these things because we refused to shut down in the face of disaster. We did these things because we refused to adopt sustainability's implied strategy, the strategy of retreat. We took cataclysms as a challenge and as an opportunity. We invented new ways to make tools, new ways to make wealth, and new ways to celebrate...We did all of these things because we chose light over Nature's darkness. We chose enthusiasm over gloom. We chose to make an exuberant new future rather than to hide in a puritanical past. Thanks to our audacious acts of defiance, Mother Nature's cruelty and her disasters made us human! Every talk like this needs a take-home message. Before I go any further, let me sum up the most important take home message oozing from the facts I'm telling you. Mother Nature is a vicious bitch. Catastrophe is her stock in trade. And with our help or without it, Mother Nature will sooner or later yank everything we take for granted away...If we want to make nature proud, it's time to ride the whirlwind. It's time to tame the forces that twist tornadoes and that swirl hurricanes. It's time to harness their energies."
"Our trick is not the old sustainability. It's not to bow and grovel hoping Mother Nature will freeze in place. Our challenge is to outrun nature by inventing radically new ways to deal with change."
"It's a very strange lesson to absorb. Nature rewards those who oppose her most. Let me repeat that: nature rewards those who oppose her most. Nature rewards those who invent new ways to circumvent her, new ways to get around her old limitations, new ways to make something radically beyond the previous boundaries, and new ways to break her rules. In the end she punishes those who merely ride her periods of stability. She wipes them out utterly. She rewards those who are so inventive that they can surf the waves of unpredictability. Nature rewards those who extend her powers, something lithoautotrophs have done by finding new ways to defy the norms of yesterday and to transform the molecules of rock into molecules of life."
"We have to have a trick up our sleeve for every curve that nature throws us...because tossing us curves and challenging our creativity is what Mother Nature is all about."
Jim Oberg's outstanding essay, ASTEROID DEFLECTION & THE FUTURE OF HUMAN INTERVENTION IN THE EARTH'S BIOSPHERE "The Universe threatens us. We resist. What I want to address today is not merely the asteroid-deflection idea, which is certainly an extreme case, but the entire spectrum of deliberate human intervention in Earth's biosphere. We must as a society discover a strategy of responding to the many unintentional but global impacts of human industrial activity. An activist, interventionist approach to artificially repairing damage and threats to Earth's biosphere -- both accidentally man-made and randomly natural in origin -- is, I predict, going to be one of the most intense ideological and philosophical conflicts of the next century. And governments -- as well as their operational elements which would be tasked in carrying out these projects -- will be at the focus of this controversy."
"The second part is the activist, interventionist phase. Vaccinate against possible outside infections. Surgically intervene to overcome systemic weaknesses or to forestall localized failures. Provide mechanical augmentation of degraded senses and muscles. Respond to external trauma with appropriate levels of care and repair. This is how people stay healthy. And by analogy, it is how a planet should stay healthy. By adding in the second phase of this philosophy to the care of Earth, we can begin to see technological solutions to technological AND natural problems. We can begin to see effective, affordable defenses against threats. And in the more distant future -- the subject of a subsequent talk -- we can glimpse desired engineered improvements to this planet, and ultimately to others as well. Bluntly -- do we know enough now to take this kind of planetary responsibility? Can we guarantee that human meddling in climate won't have unintentional, deleterious effects? No, we don't know enough, and no, we can make no such guarantees. But that is no more reason to avoid the strategy than the sad history of centuries of medical blunderings toward knowledge is a reason not to make use of modern medical science. The initial ignorance and misconceptions of medical workers were often more of a threat to patients than were the original ailments. But to a statistically significant degree we've passed through that prologue into the dawn of the age of effective medical science. To refrain from taking actions in defense of Earth's biosphere, using the fear of our ignorance as an excuse, is -- I argue -- an abdication of our responsibility to our planet and to our nation and to our children...Many of the themes of 'asteroid defense' coincide with themes of intimate concern to the US Space Command. Perhaps the most pressing one is surveillance, the ability to know what is happening out there. Ideally, one should know what is happening soon enough to take effective countermeasures...The US Defense Department may still be discussing for decades whether or not it wants to get involved in this business -- and in the end, the assignment may be dropped in its lap whatever its own desires may be."
Ultimately, as poetically addressed by Science Fiction writer Bruce Sterling in Schizmatrix Plus, an epic and sweeping tour of a solar civilization encompassing space, genetic, and information technology where not just our environment but ourselves are modified, we must be on th side of life, the Lifesiders. ttp://www.amazon.com/Schismatrix-Plus-Complete-Shapers-Mechanists-Universe/dp/044100370202 January 2008
Planetary Defense
I recently completed the above book by Travis Taylor, Bob Boan, R.C. Anding and T. Conely Powell. http://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Planetary-Defense-Extra-Terrestrial-Invasion/dp/book-citations/1581124473The book makes the argument that life is likely elsewhere, that actual population growth in ecosystems would not follow fermi's paradox, and that given certain assumptions about the density of intelligent life (using Drake's equation) and sub-light travel capabilities, that there is likely a certain frequency of travel, and therefore a non-zero possibility that we could be visited, and that those visiting us would have non-compatible motives. The book spends a fair amount of time on possible motives, and possible defenses. It makes some proposals for how to prepare. Like me, the authors conclude that the highest emphasis should be on propulsion technology. For a good discussion of the problem, see NASA's (now defunct and unfunded) Breakthrough Propulsion Physics:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/research/warp/warp.html
Overall, I am happy the authors took the risk of introducing a book on the subject, though the book is a bit populist, where I would have preferred something even more academic. The book extensively cites Sci-Fi, which is fine, but would have benefitted from an apology up-front. More time could have been spent elaborating decision trees, and I thought Faster-than-Light (FTL) possibilities were overemphasized. Thankfully, the book did not take a stand on actual visitation, which is characteristic of others that are convinced that such a visit has already occurred ( http://www.exopolitics.org/ )--that will ensure the broadest possible serious audience.
The book would have benefitted by exposure to some Realpolitik theory and a greater expansion of our own history of clashes between exploring advanced civilizations (England, France, Spain, Dutch, U.S., China) and primitive visited civilizations (Incan, Mayan, African, Native North American, Pacific Islanders).
It also only considered contact with a singular entity, and did not discuss the likelyhood that if there is one other spacefaring civilization, there are more than one which likely establishes both motive and possible leverage. It also only discussed warfare only from the perspective of defense, without the positive goal.
The discussion would have benefitted significantly from a reading of Col John Boyd's Discourse on Winning and Losing, where he makes explicit the goal to: Survive, survive on own terms, and improve the capacity for independent action. To read Boyd yourself, go to:http://d-n-i.net/second_level/boyd_military.htm#discourse
The best way to read up on Boyd is to start with Corum's book Boyd: The Fighter Pilot that Changed the Art of War ( http://www.amazon.com/Boyd-Fighter-Pilot-Who-Changed/dp/0316881465 ), 
then Hammond's Mind of War, ( http://www.amazon.com/Mind-War-John-American-Security/dp/158834178X/ref=pd_bxgy_b_img_b ) then read Boyd himself (above), and finally, read the Opus,
Osinga's Science, Strategy & Warfare: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd ( available at http://www.routledgestrategicstudies.com/)
Beautiful Maps of the Nearest Stars
If you haven't downloaded the newest version of GoogleEarth, you are in for a treat. They have a feature that allows you to turn things inside-out and look at the universe, zooming in to see the most amazing hubble images.
http://earth.google.com/sky/index.html
That got me thinking about a 3-D Stellar Map that could show us our nearest exploration targets. I found the following:
And another example of an easy to understand star-map from the MMOG Game Earth and beyond: http://www.earthandbeyond.ca/ http://www.siriuscyberneticscorporation.com/maps.asp
I also found this nice summary of Extra-Solar Planets (and good map)
26 November 2007
23 November 2007
Space Solar Makes the WSJ!
http://blogs.wsj.com/informedreader/2007/11/21/a-second-look-at-solar-energy-from-space/ says the followin:
A Second Look at Solar Energy From Space
Rising energy prices and environmental concerns have revived interest in an energy project often contemplated and often dismissed since the 1960s: placing gigantic solar panels into orbit. The idea’s continued appeal, explain Dan Cho and David Cohen in the New Scientist, lies in how much more of the sun’s energy can be captured from space than from earth (subscription required). Without clouds, nights or the atmosphere, a solar panel in space could generate 20 times as much electricity as it could on average at ground level. The electricity could then be transported back to Earth by beaming it in microwaves to receiving stations equipped with special antennas.
NASA canceled a project looking into a space solar panel in 2001. But, following technological advances that could reduce the costs of the project, there are some signs of renewed interest, including a large conference in May on the topic at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Pentagon has also expressed interest in developing the concept on a small scale, as a way to provide energy to its remote military bases.
The most research into the technical problems has been conducted in Japan, which depends on foreign sources for most of its energy, has few natural resources, and is keen to cut carbon-dioxide emissions. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA, and Japan’s Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry are funding a $12 million space-solar-panel project. Even factoring in the energy used for construction, Masahiro Mori, a director at JAXA, estimates a space-based solar power station would create six times the energy of an earth-based one. — Robin Moroney
Hopefully Robin Moroney will write a follow up article width details on the $12 Million METI project.
A Second Look at Solar Energy From Space
Rising energy prices and environmental concerns have revived interest in an energy project often contemplated and often dismissed since the 1960s: placing gigantic solar panels into orbit. The idea’s continued appeal, explain Dan Cho and David Cohen in the New Scientist, lies in how much more of the sun’s energy can be captured from space than from earth (subscription required). Without clouds, nights or the atmosphere, a solar panel in space could generate 20 times as much electricity as it could on average at ground level. The electricity could then be transported back to Earth by beaming it in microwaves to receiving stations equipped with special antennas.
NASA canceled a project looking into a space solar panel in 2001. But, following technological advances that could reduce the costs of the project, there are some signs of renewed interest, including a large conference in May on the topic at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Pentagon has also expressed interest in developing the concept on a small scale, as a way to provide energy to its remote military bases.
The most research into the technical problems has been conducted in Japan, which depends on foreign sources for most of its energy, has few natural resources, and is keen to cut carbon-dioxide emissions. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA, and Japan’s Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry are funding a $12 million space-solar-panel project. Even factoring in the energy used for construction, Masahiro Mori, a director at JAXA, estimates a space-based solar power station would create six times the energy of an earth-based one. — Robin Moroney
Hopefully Robin Moroney will write a follow up article width details on the $12 Million METI project.
19 November 2007
Google Lunar X-Prize features Space Solar Power
Check out this inspirational speech:
http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/lunar/why-the-moon/john-marburger-speech
And the beautiful vision of Space Solar Power Satellites in their video:
http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/lunar/competition/moon-2-0-rollout-video
http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/lunar/why-the-moon/john-marburger-speech
And the beautiful vision of Space Solar Power Satellites in their video:
http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/lunar/competition/moon-2-0-rollout-video
NSSO Releases Space-Based Solar Power Study!
Those interested in Space Industrialization, Clean Energy, Environmental Security & Global Warming, Global Sustainable Economic Development will find this a very interesting study:
http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/nsso.htm
http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/nsso.htm
The study used a number of experts, and even featured a public blog:
But don't expect any immediate action...sources say that some forces and other space agencies within the administration and USAF think it is too far out and competes with the current vision for exploration. Word is the NSSO took heat for "stepping out of its lane" to consider such global issues.
In Marked Contrast...
In contrast to NASA's reluctance to step outside manned and robotic exploration, DOD has long had voices calling it to take leadership in Planetary Defense:
Most recently:
http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/documents/Potential-DoD-Roles--Garretson.pdf
From as far back as Feb 2000:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/neo_defense_000207.html
A high-ranking U.S. Military official -- speaking in a non-official capacity -- says the hunt for potentially Earth-threatening space rocks should be more centralized, and the Department of Defense could be a primary force behind this project.
Pete Worden, deputy director for Command and Control at the U.S. Air Force Headquarters in the Pentagon, suggested an array of micro-satellites should be used to find and study Near Earth Objects -- asteroids and comets known as NEOs -- in an effort to save money and speed up the search process.
And even before that in:
France Article (Contains specific Legislative proposals):
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/france2.html
Nici/Kaupa Article:
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj97/sum97/nici.html
SpaceCast2020:
http://csat.au.af.mil/2020/papers/app-r.pdf
AF2025:
http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch16.pdf
Other links of interest:
Report to congress:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/171331main_NEO_report_march07.pdf
AOA behind the Report as posted by NASA:
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/FOIA/NEO_Analysis_Doc.pdf
AOA behind the report as posted by B612 Foundation
http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/NASA-finalrpt.pdf
Know what to do, don't have the Money:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20070305-1432-killerasteroids.html AIAA Position Paper:
http://www.planetarydefense.info/resources/pdf/Asteroids-Final.pdf
Most recently:
http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/documents/Potential-DoD-Roles--Garretson.pdf
From as far back as Feb 2000:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/neo_defense_000207.html
A high-ranking U.S. Military official -- speaking in a non-official capacity -- says the hunt for potentially Earth-threatening space rocks should be more centralized, and the Department of Defense could be a primary force behind this project.
Pete Worden, deputy director for Command and Control at the U.S. Air Force Headquarters in the Pentagon, suggested an array of micro-satellites should be used to find and study Near Earth Objects -- asteroids and comets known as NEOs -- in an effort to save money and speed up the search process.
And even before that in:
France Article (Contains specific Legislative proposals):
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/france2.html
Nici/Kaupa Article:
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj97/sum97/nici.html
SpaceCast2020:
http://csat.au.af.mil/2020/papers/app-r.pdf
AF2025:
http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch16.pdf
Other links of interest:
Report to congress:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/171331main_NEO_report_march07.pdf
AOA behind the Report as posted by NASA:
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/FOIA/NEO_Analysis_Doc.pdf
AOA behind the report as posted by B612 Foundation
http://www.b612foundation.org/papers/NASA-finalrpt.pdf
Know what to do, don't have the Money:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20070305-1432-killerasteroids.html AIAA Position Paper:
http://www.planetarydefense.info/resources/pdf/Asteroids-Final.pdf
NASA drops the ball on Planetary Defense
See the testimony for how NASA failed to comply with the congressional tasking to provide a recommendation.
http://www.nasawatch.com/archives/2007/11/neo_hearing.html
http://www.nasawatch.com/archives/2007/11/neo_hearing.html
28 April 2006
Incorporate he Solar System into our Economic Sphere
The President's Science Advisor gave an outstanding speech ( http://www.ostp.gov/html/jhmGoddardSymp03-15-06Release.pdf ) laying out a very hopeful vision of the exploration program, just one of the gems is:
As I see it, questions about the vision boil down to whether we want to incorporate the Solar System in our economic sphere, or not. Our national policy, declared by President Bush and endorsed by Congress last December in the NASA authorization act, affirms that, "The fundamental goal of this vision is to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust space exploration program." So at least for now the question has been decided in the affirmative.
As I see it, questions about the vision boil down to whether we want to incorporate the Solar System in our economic sphere, or not. Our national policy, declared by President Bush and endorsed by Congress last December in the NASA authorization act, affirms that, "The fundamental goal of this vision is to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust space exploration program." So at least for now the question has been decided in the affirmative.
More On Planetary Defense
A long term vision for humanity and its offspring must include the idea of stewardship, of gardening, nurturing and protecting the worlds we inhabit. When we travel, it will not be just ourselves we take with us, but our biosphere as well. It is therefore critical that we protect our biospheres...even more so to give us time to get off, and a place to come back to. In 2004, before becoming NASA administrator, Mike Griffin had some outstanding words on the subject, and what needs to be done:
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12483
"Mister Chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for giving me this opportunity to comment on the greatest natural threat to the long-term survivability of mankind, an asteroid impact with the Earth. "
To understand graphically just what a shooting gallery we really live in, check out the oustanding Java simulation below:
http://web.utk.edu/~ksorense/javaws/
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12483
"Mister Chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for giving me this opportunity to comment on the greatest natural threat to the long-term survivability of mankind, an asteroid impact with the Earth. "
To understand graphically just what a shooting gallery we really live in, check out the oustanding Java simulation below:
http://web.utk.edu/~ksorense/javaws/
06 April 2006
HabStars and Travel Plans
From: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.nl.html?pid=19462
ANU astronomers have discovered a nearby solar twin which may shed light on the search for planets that are similar to Earth and that may even support life.
HD98618 is only the second star found so far that is almost identical to the Sun in age, size, temperature and chemistry, according to the researchers Dr Jorge Meléndez, Ms Katie Dodds-Eden and Mr José Robles, from the Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics.
"This solar twin doesn't only have the same mass as the Sun, it was also formed with the same 'chemical recipe'. So this star was equipped in the same way as the Sun to form Earth-like planets," Mr Robles said.
"Hopefully, as new planet finding techniques are developed and refined, astronomers will find whether HD98618 hosts terrestrial planets, which may even contain life."
HD98618 lies a mere 126 light-years away in the northern constellation of Ursa Major (the 'Big Dipper'). It is bright enough to see in binoculars, but only in the Northern Hemisphere.
The researchers believe that HD98618 is about four billion years-old, about 10 per cent younger than our own Sun. Its chemical properties are almost identical to the Sun and to the other closest Sun twin, a star known as 18 Scorpii, which was discovered a decade ago.
"It means that hypothetical terrestrial planets around this solar twin may have had enough time to develop some kind of complex life, assuming the time-scale for complex life formation is similar to Earth's," Dr Meléndez said.
----
Hopefully humanity will achieve the ability to travel beyond our system. When we do, it will be useful to have a plan for how to survey and expand. Even if we are "Transhuman" in this timeframe, we will likely still want to watch systems similar to our own (in the same way we watch avian flu to ensure it does not become virulent), and it is unlikely that the tyranny of distance will be completely eradicated even if we achieve radical life extension. Resources are likely to always constrain our ambitions, and we will have to choose what gets priority.
Therefore we should at least start to think about our priority for exploration. Good initial candidates might be picked from the SETI projects top most habitable stars, which were lately articulated by Margaret Turnbull ( http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060221_habstars.html ). We may also want to give thought to the structure of the search, not unlike previous exploration missions were fleets travel together for a time before splitting up, to circuits of travel, and to starts that lie in a plane and can use common navigational references.
ANU astronomers have discovered a nearby solar twin which may shed light on the search for planets that are similar to Earth and that may even support life.
HD98618 is only the second star found so far that is almost identical to the Sun in age, size, temperature and chemistry, according to the researchers Dr Jorge Meléndez, Ms Katie Dodds-Eden and Mr José Robles, from the Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics.
"This solar twin doesn't only have the same mass as the Sun, it was also formed with the same 'chemical recipe'. So this star was equipped in the same way as the Sun to form Earth-like planets," Mr Robles said.
"Hopefully, as new planet finding techniques are developed and refined, astronomers will find whether HD98618 hosts terrestrial planets, which may even contain life."
HD98618 lies a mere 126 light-years away in the northern constellation of Ursa Major (the 'Big Dipper'). It is bright enough to see in binoculars, but only in the Northern Hemisphere.
The researchers believe that HD98618 is about four billion years-old, about 10 per cent younger than our own Sun. Its chemical properties are almost identical to the Sun and to the other closest Sun twin, a star known as 18 Scorpii, which was discovered a decade ago.
"It means that hypothetical terrestrial planets around this solar twin may have had enough time to develop some kind of complex life, assuming the time-scale for complex life formation is similar to Earth's," Dr Meléndez said.
----
Hopefully humanity will achieve the ability to travel beyond our system. When we do, it will be useful to have a plan for how to survey and expand. Even if we are "Transhuman" in this timeframe, we will likely still want to watch systems similar to our own (in the same way we watch avian flu to ensure it does not become virulent), and it is unlikely that the tyranny of distance will be completely eradicated even if we achieve radical life extension. Resources are likely to always constrain our ambitions, and we will have to choose what gets priority.
Therefore we should at least start to think about our priority for exploration. Good initial candidates might be picked from the SETI projects top most habitable stars, which were lately articulated by Margaret Turnbull ( http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060221_habstars.html ). We may also want to give thought to the structure of the search, not unlike previous exploration missions were fleets travel together for a time before splitting up, to circuits of travel, and to starts that lie in a plane and can use common navigational references.
Some of these considerations are expressed in the following Astronomy Magazine article, by Margorie Fish. While this is a favorite among the true believers in the UFO community, it is still a very useful group of well thought-out criteria for local exploration. The article is reprinted at the below links:
http://www.astrosurf.com/lunascan/hillzeta.htm
http://www.gravitywarpdrive.com/Zeta_Reticuli_Incident.htm
http://www.astrosurf.com/lunascan/hillzeta.htm
http://www.gravitywarpdrive.com/Zeta_Reticuli_Incident.htm
04 April 2006
Earth may have only one chance!
Here is a sobering thought from www.dieoff.org
Sir Fred Hoyle in 1964 put it bluntly.
It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on the Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing intelligence this is not correct. We have or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only. (Hoyle, 1964)
I think this is the credible viewpoint, but I don't think absolute pessimism is in order. Given a long enough time scale (hundreds of millions of years) after a demise of human life, the Earth might replentish fossil fuel supplies. We may have created essentially new stores of high grade materials, already concentrated along with some archeology that might well catapult a successor civilization.
But the goal is to spread our memes and our genes, and that means we must get off world, start replicating, remove the single point of failure, find new energy sources, and protect and spread our biosphere.
Sir Fred Hoyle in 1964 put it bluntly.
It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on the Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing intelligence this is not correct. We have or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only. (Hoyle, 1964)
I think this is the credible viewpoint, but I don't think absolute pessimism is in order. Given a long enough time scale (hundreds of millions of years) after a demise of human life, the Earth might replentish fossil fuel supplies. We may have created essentially new stores of high grade materials, already concentrated along with some archeology that might well catapult a successor civilization.
But the goal is to spread our memes and our genes, and that means we must get off world, start replicating, remove the single point of failure, find new energy sources, and protect and spread our biosphere.
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